Bruce Carriker
18th July 2008, 11:14 AM (11:14)
With all the presidential stuff going on, nobody has been paying much attention to the US Senate races. Maybe that's because incumbents in the House and Senate win re-election at a better than 90% rate. But, maybe not this year. Here are some interesting races shaping up:
Alaska: Ted Stevens has been in the Senate since the US government purchased it from Russia. Okay, not really...but almost. He is the unchallenged champion of pork, delivering billions of your dollars and mine to his handful of Alaska constituents. In 1996 he won by a 65% margin. In 2002, he increased that to 67%. This year, he has only a 2% lead over his Democratic challenger, Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. That lead is within the polls' margin of error.
Colorado: Dem. Congressman Mark Udall has a ten point lead over former GOP Congressman Bob Schaeffer to succeed retiring GOP Senator Wayne Allard.
Mississippi: Trent Lott's handpicked successor, Senator Bob Wicker (appointed when Lott retired), has only a 1 point lead (within the margin of error) over Democrat Ronnie Musgrave. When Wicker was appointed to the Senate and a special election held to fill his US House seat, the Democrats won that seat. Wouldn't it be interesting if Lott's retirement produced a gain in both the House AND the Senate for the Democrats?
New Hampshire: In 2002, John Sununu defeated retiring Dem. Governor Jeanne Shaheen. This year, in a rematch, Shaheen has a double digit lead that has remained constant for most of this year.
New Mexico: GOP Senator Pete Domenici is retirng. His seat will almost sure go to Democratic Congressman Tom Udall, who has held a 20-plus point lead for sometime, a lead that continues to grow. Two incumbent GOP members of Congress gave up their House seats to run for the the GOP Senate nomination, and it appears that the Democrats may win both those House seats, as well as Domenici's Senate seat.
Oregon: Incumbent GOP Senator Gordon Smith has seen his early lead over State House Speaker Jeff Merkely disappear. In the lastest polls, they are tied. Oregon hasn't voted for a Republican Presidential candidate since 1984, Obama has a 9-point lead right now, and Smith is widely disliked (which is puzzling, because by all accounts, he's a moderate who's done a decent job).
Virginia: Former Dem. Governor Mark Warner holds a huge lead (30 points) over former GOP Governor Jim Gilmore. In two election cycles, the Virginia Senate seats will go from two highly regarded Republicans (John Warner, George Allen) to two Democrats (Mark Warner, Jim Webb). The governor is also a popular Democrat, Tim Kaine.
Lousiana: This is the only Democratic Senate seat that appears to be in any trouble. Mary Landrieu has seen her early lead over John Kennedy (no, not that John Kennedy) shrink to five points...just outside the margin of error.
Even if John McCain were to win the presidential election, it is unlikely that he will have any coattails strong enough to prevent the Democrats from widening their margins in both the House and the Senate. Although the net gain of nine seats to give the Democrats a filibuster-proof partisan majority in the Senate is very unlikely, it is not inconceivable that they could pick up six Senate seats this fall, giving them a 57-43, advantage. Then moderate Republicans like Susan Collins, Olympia Snow, and Arlen Specter could, on some issues at least, be part of a working Senate majority to finally overcome the GOP obstructionism that currently plagues that chamber of Congress.
Alaska: Ted Stevens has been in the Senate since the US government purchased it from Russia. Okay, not really...but almost. He is the unchallenged champion of pork, delivering billions of your dollars and mine to his handful of Alaska constituents. In 1996 he won by a 65% margin. In 2002, he increased that to 67%. This year, he has only a 2% lead over his Democratic challenger, Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. That lead is within the polls' margin of error.
Colorado: Dem. Congressman Mark Udall has a ten point lead over former GOP Congressman Bob Schaeffer to succeed retiring GOP Senator Wayne Allard.
Mississippi: Trent Lott's handpicked successor, Senator Bob Wicker (appointed when Lott retired), has only a 1 point lead (within the margin of error) over Democrat Ronnie Musgrave. When Wicker was appointed to the Senate and a special election held to fill his US House seat, the Democrats won that seat. Wouldn't it be interesting if Lott's retirement produced a gain in both the House AND the Senate for the Democrats?
New Hampshire: In 2002, John Sununu defeated retiring Dem. Governor Jeanne Shaheen. This year, in a rematch, Shaheen has a double digit lead that has remained constant for most of this year.
New Mexico: GOP Senator Pete Domenici is retirng. His seat will almost sure go to Democratic Congressman Tom Udall, who has held a 20-plus point lead for sometime, a lead that continues to grow. Two incumbent GOP members of Congress gave up their House seats to run for the the GOP Senate nomination, and it appears that the Democrats may win both those House seats, as well as Domenici's Senate seat.
Oregon: Incumbent GOP Senator Gordon Smith has seen his early lead over State House Speaker Jeff Merkely disappear. In the lastest polls, they are tied. Oregon hasn't voted for a Republican Presidential candidate since 1984, Obama has a 9-point lead right now, and Smith is widely disliked (which is puzzling, because by all accounts, he's a moderate who's done a decent job).
Virginia: Former Dem. Governor Mark Warner holds a huge lead (30 points) over former GOP Governor Jim Gilmore. In two election cycles, the Virginia Senate seats will go from two highly regarded Republicans (John Warner, George Allen) to two Democrats (Mark Warner, Jim Webb). The governor is also a popular Democrat, Tim Kaine.
Lousiana: This is the only Democratic Senate seat that appears to be in any trouble. Mary Landrieu has seen her early lead over John Kennedy (no, not that John Kennedy) shrink to five points...just outside the margin of error.
Even if John McCain were to win the presidential election, it is unlikely that he will have any coattails strong enough to prevent the Democrats from widening their margins in both the House and the Senate. Although the net gain of nine seats to give the Democrats a filibuster-proof partisan majority in the Senate is very unlikely, it is not inconceivable that they could pick up six Senate seats this fall, giving them a 57-43, advantage. Then moderate Republicans like Susan Collins, Olympia Snow, and Arlen Specter could, on some issues at least, be part of a working Senate majority to finally overcome the GOP obstructionism that currently plagues that chamber of Congress.