BCS Breakdown 2010-2011

[Ryan Scott]

I did this last season to break down the bowl situation each week the BCS comes out. I know it's way, way too early for these things to matter, but I'm excited and it couldn't hurt to use the practice.

One change for this season - if either the PAC-10 or the Big-10 send a team to the National Championship Game and one of the Non-AQ schools qualifies for an automatic bid, that Non-AQ school automatically plays in the Rose Bowl.

I find it hard to believe no Non-AQ team will get an automatic bid, so likely Boise State, TCU, and Utah are playing for a Rose Bowl bid. That's a big deal.

Without further ado:

If the season were to end today (and somehow every team magically had enough wins to qualify) the Bowl games would be:

National Championship Game - Oklahoma vs Oregon

Rose Bowl - Boise State vs Michigan State*

Sugar Bowl - Auburn* vs Ohio State**

Orange Bowl - Florida State* vs Stanford**

Fiesta Bowl - Alabama** vs Utah**

*Conference champions assumed based on current records and standings.

**At large berths

Because the Fiesta Bowl would lose Oklahoma to the National Championship Game, they get the first at-large pick as a replacement. Alabama is a natural choice - big time team with a strong fan base and lots of national attention.

Next choice goes to the Sugar Bowl. LSU is now ineligible due to 2 teams from their conference already being selected. Ohio State becomes the next likely choice. Another strong team with a big fan base and lots of national attention.

Third pick goes to the Orange Bowl. Their options are TCU, Utah, Missouri, Stanford, and Oklahoma State. Stanford has some swagger, a rich fan base that will buy up tons of tickets for a BCS game and Andrew Luck, who's recognized as a big time QB. That seems like the logical choice, to me.

Final pick goes to the Fiesta Bowl, which showed last year they were willing to ride the non-AQ schools - schools with most of their following in the same region as the game. If you recall, Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl two years ago. This matchup would be an ideal marketing move for the bowl picking last. Without a ton of other great options. It makes sense.


As always, these things will change drastically as the rest of the games are played, but right now, I think this is a solid guess at where things stand.

[Billie Goodson]

Alabama v Utah would be an interesting matchup. A repeat of the 09 Sugar where Bama got thumped by Utah.
Auburn v Ohio State would be interesting -- because of the QB similarities and that my pastor is a OSU fan while I am a War Eagle fan...

I love the BCS System for the potential it has!

[Jim Poteet]

Alabama v Utah would be an interesting matchup. A repeat of the 09 Sugar where Bama got thumped by Utah.
Auburn v Ohio State would be interesting -- because of the QB similarities and that my pastor is a OSU fan while I am a War Eagle fan...

I love the BCS System for the potential it has!

I have a feeling that Auburn may be the best team in the nation this year. I like the quarterback a great deal.

[Shea Zellweger]

I'm just hoping the Orange can make the Pinstripe Bowl...

[Steven Martinez]

I'm just hoping the Orange can make the Pinstripe Bowl...

Would they play Florida in that game? Half their team already has uniforms for it.:smilies0161:

[Billie Goodson]

I have a feeling that Auburn may be the best team in the nation this year. I like the quarterback a great deal.

Auburns problems are a defense that has pass coverage problems and only a single offensive threat. Interesting that even when the entire nation knows what is about to happen, good defenses have still not been able to stop Newton. It is wild to see a guy that big be even remotely 'elusive'. Then he gets on the goal line and trucks a lb/safety. I wasn't sure a few weeks ago about any chance at a Heisman candidacy, but now I think his name has to be in the thick of the mix.

Auburn is scary in ervery game, but Chizik seems to be able to pull the right levers when it matters. You just have to wonder when the well runs dry.

[Jim Poteet]

Auburns problems are a defense that has pass coverage problems and only a single offensive threat. Interesting that even when the entire nation knows what is about to happen, good defenses have still not been able to stop Newton. It is wild to see a guy that big be even remotely 'elusive'. Then he gets on the goal line and trucks a lb/safety. I wasn't sure a few weeks ago about any chance at a Heisman candidacy, but now I think his name has to be in the thick of the mix.

Auburn is scary in ervery game, but Chizik seems to be able to pull the right levers when it matters. You just have to wonder when the well runs dry.

Newton reminds me of Vince Young.

[Ryan Scott]

Newton reminds me of Vince Young.

Decent comparison. Young was a better thrower, but Newton seems to have more understanding and control of the game. Newton makes the whole thing look pretty effortless.

[Billie Goodson]

Decent comparison. Young was a better thrower, but Newton seems to have more understanding and control of the game. Newton makes the whole thing look pretty effortless.

He makes it look surprisingly effortless. This week will be an interesting test for him. I hope he does great, but then I am an AU fan.

[Jim Poteet]

Decent comparison. Young was a better thrower, but Newton seems to have more understanding and control of the game. Newton makes the whole thing look pretty effortless.

I am not sure I would agree with that just yet. When Newton leads Auburn to the BCS Championship, maybe your statement will be true. Vince had total control of the game when Texas won the BCS Chamionship in 2005.

[Steven Martinez]

Decent comparison. Young was a better thrower, but Newton seems to have more understanding and control of the game. Newton makes the whole thing look pretty effortless.

If Young is a better thrower then I would suggest that Newton switch arms. Young had and has one of the worst throwing motions in history. As one writer described it, "It is like watching a guy trying to fling dog poo of his hand!"

[Jim Poteet]

If Young is a better thrower then I would suggest that Newton switch arms. Young had and has one of the worst throwing motions in history. As one writer described it, "It is like watching a guy trying to fling dog poo of his hand!"

Of course he "flung enough dog poo off his hand" to handle the unbeatable Trojans in the BCS Championship Game.:)

[Steven Martinez]

Of course he "flung enough dog poo off his hand" to handle the unbeatable Trojans in the BCS Championship Game.:)

Sadly not all of the poo flings were behind the line of scrimmage.:mad:

[Ryan Scott]

I am not sure I would agree with that just yet. When Newton leads Auburn to the BCS Championship, maybe your statement will be true. Vince had total control of the game when Texas won the BCS Chamionship in 2005.

Yeah, but Young seemed to play off instinct. Newton just seems more relaxed, like he's got it figured out ahead of time.

[Kevin Rector]

Watching him against Arkansas I was really impressed by him. I was not however very impressed with Auburn's defense.

[Billie Goodson]

Watching him against Arkansas I was really impressed by him. I was not however very impressed with Auburn's defense.

Oh, I am impressed by the defense all right. They give Newton maximum opportunity to demonstrate his abilities. Of course we would prefer that be a result of a punt instead of a kickoff, but so far, it is working.

Everybody thinks its a track meet. When the defense does make a stop, it is kind of like, "Wow! They set us up!" At some point the magic has to give out, we are just hoping it don't happen until the spring game. Thankfully, there really doesn't appear to be a "complete team" in our sights for a while. Even LSU has to overcome their offensive struggles and a coach that bewilders everyone.

[Wesley Anderson]

Decent comparison. Young was a better thrower, but Newton seems to have more understanding and control of the game. Newton makes the whole thing look pretty effortless.

Newton is a fine thrower- he just doesn't have to do it very often.

There's a difference.

[Billie Goodson]

Newton is a fine thrower- he just doesn't have to do it very often.

There's a difference.

There was a comment in the game yesterday that Newton is more ready for the NFL. That is kind of like saying Casper the Ghost has a grip on reality.

Newton has shown that he can make some horrible decisions in the passing game earlier this year. I think the coaching staff has worked hard to correct that. I think the coaching staff works hard to scheme to his potential, which he is making look easy.

[Ryan Scott]

So the week two standings are out and things have moved around quite a bit. Were the season to end today:


National Championship Game: Auburn vs Oregon

Rose Bowl: Boise State vs Michigan State

Sugar Bowl: Alabama** vs Oklahoma**

Orange Bowl: Florida State* vs Ohio State**

Fiesta Bowl: Missouri* vs Stanford**

*Conference champion based on rankings and record

**At large selection

After losing Auburn to the National Championship Game, the Sugar Bowl would pick Alabama - big draw, same conference. They then get the first at-large selection. Oklahoma makes a lot of sense. Big name schools and coaches facing off.

The Orange Bowl chooses next, Ohio State is the natural choice. Big reputation, huge fan base.

The Fiesta Bowl chooses last, with slim pickings - just TCU, Utah, and Stanford eligible. Stanford is a west coast team from a power conference with a top QB. It makes sense.

[Steven Martinez]

The Fiesta Bowl chooses last, with slim pickings - just TCU, Utah, and Stanford eligible. Stanford is a west coast team from a power conference with a top QB. It makes sense.

I think you over estimate Stanford's reputation. I think with Texas' season being such a downer, it is possible that TCU could actually have a better drawing power as far as ratings. Stanford is not even the number one team in the region of California (Bat Area) let alone the state. Unlike Texas, Southern California will not support Stanford just because it is in the Pac-10 or a Californian team.

[Ryan Scott]

I think you over estimate Stanford's reputation. I think with Texas' season being such a downer, it is possible that TCU could actually have a better drawing power as far as ratings. Stanford is not even the number one team in the region of California (Bat Area) let alone the state. Unlike Texas, Southern California will not support Stanford just because it is in the Pac-10 or a Californian team.

I thought about that. I think a lot will depend on whether Utah beats TCU or the other way around. If Utah is an at large bid with a move to the PAC-10 on the horizon, they make more sense. I've been trying to do these projections strictly based on what the teams and schedules look like right now.

TCU is high, but them playing Missouri (another team that doesn't travel well) isn't a ratings bonanza and they'll have to work hard to sell out the game tickets. Utah is currently viewed as the #2 team in a non-AQ conference; even less exciting. Outside of California, the media still love Andrew Luck and for TV viewing a draft-prospect QB who people likely haven't seen in person is marketing gold. Stanford fans will travel to Arizona. It makes the most sense, especially without a name school.

Like I said on another thread, TCU (if they beat Utah) will likely jump Boise State anyway. BSU is a better at-large draw than TCU. I suspect that would be the best chance for both to make BCS games. There's a lot of football left to play - we'll see what happens.

[Ryan Scott]

Mea culpa,

The Big-East is so irrelevant, I forgot to even include a team from that conference in either of my early projections.

So, revised:

Remove Stanford and replace with Pittsburgh. That removes the debate over the last at-large spot. Wow. Big-East football is in sorry shape.

[Shea Zellweger]

Mea culpa,

The Big-East is so irrelevant, I forgot to even include a team from that conference in either of my early projections.

So, revised:

Remove Stanford and replace with Pittsburgh. That removes the debate over the last at-large spot. Wow. Big-East football is in sorry shape.

Hey! the Orange are off to their best start in years, so I don't wanna hear about the sorry shape of the Big East ;)

[Ryan Scott]

Hey! the Orange are off to their best start in years, so I don't wanna hear about the sorry shape of the Big East

Talk about a self-fulfilling prophesy.

[Ryan Scott]

Here's the new BCS bowl projections based on the new BCS rankings. I'll try not to forget the Big-East this week, even though they're (along with the Sun Belt and the MAC) one of three conferences to have no teams in the Top 25. The WAC has two, even.


If the season were to end now (and we could overlook the requirement of having 9 wins):

National Championship Game: Oregon vs Auburn

Rose Bowl: TCU vs Wisconsin*

Sugar Bowl: Alabama** vs Boise State**

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech* vs Oklahoma**

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska* vs Pittsburgh

*Conference Champion based on established tiebreakers

**At-large Selection

Alabama makes the natural replacement for the SEC Champion. Choosing Boise State is a stretch, but one I'll justify in their superior record and national interest. They've proven they can travel and they get great TV ratings. The other viable options are Oklahoma and Ohio State; I think Boise gives them the most cache.

Oklahoma would be the next pick. Ohio State may travel well, but they're not exciting - not a great choice for ratings. The very fact that the ACC and the Big East have to get teams in will hurt the quality of these games this year. The Big East is atrocious and the ACC is beating itself up pretty good.

I'm glad there's plenty of football left to play; I hope we'll get better match-ups come January.

[Jim Poteet]

If Young is a better thrower then I would suggest that Newton switch arms. Young had and has one of the worst throwing motions in history. As one writer described it, "It is like watching a guy trying to fling dog poo of his hand!"

Guess who is #1 in the NFL passer ratings? http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics

[Shea Zellweger]

Guess who is #1 in the NFL passer ratings? http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics

As of 2008, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, and Carson Palmer all had higher career passer ratings than Dan Marino. Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselbeck were ranked above Jim Kelly. I'm inclined to think that one's ability as a Quarterback is not necessarily in direct correlation with one's passer rating. Also, I don't think Passer rating and throwing motion are entirely connected. There are always a handful of players who use ridiculous motions/deliveries/methods quite prolifically, but who should never be imitated by anyone trying to learn that position. Several batting stances and free-throw approaches come to mind along with a few quarterbacks...

[Jim Poteet]

As of 2008, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, and Carson Palmer all had higher career passer ratings than Dan Marino. Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselbeck were ranked above Jim Kelly. I'm inclined to think that one's ability as a Quarterback is not necessarily in direct correlation with one's passer rating. Also, I don't think Passer rating and throwing motion are entirely connected. There are always a handful of players who use ridiculous motions/deliveries/methods quite prolifically, but who should never be imitated by anyone trying to learn that position. Several batting stances and free-throw approaches come to mind along with a few quarterbacks...

You are right. There are several great players in sports who have been unorthodox.

[Steven Martinez]

Guess who is #1 in the NFL passer ratings? http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics

This showing your lack of NFL experience Coach P. NFL QB rating has more to do with 5 yard throws then anything else. If all a QB did is throw screen passes or 5 yard slants he would have a high QB ranking but his team would go 1-15. For example 4 of the top 10 on the list are playing for losing teams. Also if Vince throws a screen pass and the receiver takes it 35 yards it looks the same in QB ranking as Peyton Manning throwing the ball 35 yards down field. Also considering that Vince ranks 23rd in passing accuracy, I think it is safe to say that his QB rating is slightly inflated by his receivers speed and ability to break tackles then his throwing ability.

[Jim Poteet]

This showing your lack of NFL experience Coach P. NFL QB rating has more to do with 5 yard throws then anything else. If all a QB did is throw screen passes or 5 yard slants he would have a high QB ranking but his team would go 1-15. For example 4 of the top 10 on the list are playing for losing teams. Also if Vince throws a screen pass and the receiver takes it 35 yards it looks the same in QB ranking as Peyton Manning throwing the ball 35 yards down field. Also considering that Vince ranks 23rd in passing accuracy, I think it is safe to say that his QB rating is slightly inflated by his receivers speed and ability to break tackles then his throwing ability.

Thank you for pointing out my lack of experience. I must be mistaken to think that the idea is to throw the ball into the receiver's hands.

[Steven Martinez]

Thank you for pointing out my lack of experience. I must be mistaken to think that the idea is to throw the ball into the receiver's hands.

And Since Vince Young is the 8 worst at doing this in the league, I would say that he has not really grasped this concept.

[Ryan Scott]

Well if this isn't the season to demand a playoff. It really seems like Boise State and TCU both deserve shots. Anyway, we have a BCS, so if the season were to end today:

National Championship Game: Oregon vs Auburn

Rose Bowl: TCU vs Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl: LSU** vs Boise State**

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Ohio State**

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

**Denotes at-large selection


I'm glad this isn't the final week - these choices are pretty poor. LSU makes sense as the replacement for Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. The Orange Bowl is not going to go with a Boise State-VT rematch, so that's out. The Sugar Bowl gets first pick - they're likely choosing between Boise State, Ohio State, and Stanford. There's a good case for any of those teams. Oklahoma State, Iowa, Michigan State, and Utah are also eligible.

[Jim Poteet]

Well if this isn't the season to demand a playoff. It really seems like Boise State and TCU both deserve shots. Anyway, we have a BCS, so if the season were to end today:

National Championship Game: Oregon vs Auburn

Rose Bowl: TCU vs Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl: LSU** vs Boise State**

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Ohio State**

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

**Denotes at-large selection


I'm glad this isn't the final week - these choices are pretty poor. LSU makes sense as the replacement for Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. The Orange Bowl is not going to go with a Boise State-VT rematch, so that's out. The Sugar Bowl gets first pick - they're likely choosing between Boise State, Ohio State, and Stanford. There's a good case for any of those teams. Oklahoma State, Iowa, Michigan State, and Utah are also eligible.

You can "demand" all you want, but a playoff isn't going to happen.

[Billie Goodson]

You can "demand" all you want, but a playoff isn't going to happen.

I am starting to hate the idea of a playoff. Right now, the tension of each and every week of BCS football is electric.

[Ryan Scott]

I prefer the BCS, I'm just saying this year, with two dominant small schools who clearly deserve a shot to prove themselves, it's a time when I'd like to have a playoff. You can't deny Oregon and Auburn, but I think TCU and Boise State deserve a shot this season.

[Kevin Rector]

Well if this isn't the season to demand a playoff. It really seems like Boise State and TCU both deserve shots. Anyway, we have a BCS, so if the season were to end today:

National Championship Game: Oregon vs Auburn

Rose Bowl: TCU vs Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl: LSU** vs Boise State**

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Ohio State**

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

**Denotes at-large selection


I'm glad this isn't the final week - these choices are pretty poor. LSU makes sense as the replacement for Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. The Orange Bowl is not going to go with a Boise State-VT rematch, so that's out. The Sugar Bowl gets first pick - they're likely choosing between Boise State, Ohio State, and Stanford. There's a good case for any of those teams. Oklahoma State, Iowa, Michigan State, and Utah are also eligible.

Ok, so here's my issue with the BCS, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh do not deserve BCS bowl games. I'm no expert on the BCS but does Pitt really get a bowl game for winning the Big East even though they are not even ranked in the top 25? I thought you had to go 10-2 or better to get an automatic qualifier for a BCS bowl - they've already lost 3. If the BCS is going to have automatic qualifying conferences, relegation from AQ status should happen season to season. If the season were to end today WAC should take the Big East AQ and Mountain West should take the ACC AQ. Every year you should have to earn next year's AQ.

[Shea Zellweger]

Ok, so here's my issue with the BCS, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh do not deserve BCS bowl games. I'm no expert on the BCS but does Pitt really get a bowl game for winning the Big East even though they are not even ranked in the top 25? I thought you had to go 10-2 or better to get an automatic qualifier for a BCS bowl - they've already lost 3.

The champions of the Big 6 conferences earn at large bids, regardless of record. For a Big East team, this means it's possible the team could go 4-8 and still qualify. In order to be Bowl Eligible, you only need to win 6 games.

Also, only 1 non-BCS team can receive an automatic qualifier to bowl games, unless the top 2 teams in the final BCS poll are non-BCS conference teams. Otherwise, #s 1-25 could all be non-BCS, and only #s 1 and 2 would receive tickets to BCS bowl games, while the rest would go to the automatic qualifiers from the Big 6.



If the BCS is going to have automatic qualifying conferences, relegation from AQ status should happen season to season. If the season were to end today WAC should take the Big East AQ and Mountain West should take the ACC AQ. Every year you should have to earn next year's AQ.


So a Mountain West or WAC team that plays a schedule that even easier than a Big East schedule "deserves" automatic qualification?

[Kevin Rector]

Ok, so here's a fun scenario... Imagine if you will that Alabama is beaten by Auburn but beats Mississippi State, Arkansas beats Mississippi State & LSU... so the final standing in the SEC West are:

Auburn 8-0 conf. 12-0 overall
LSU 6-2 conf. 10-2 overall
Arkansas 6-2 conf. 10-2 overall
Alabama 5-3 conf. 9-3 overall

Who gets the Sugar bowl nod? LSU or the team that just beat them?

[Kevin Rector]

The champions of the Big 6 conferences earn at large bids, regardless of record. For a Big East team, this means it's possible the team could go 4-8 and still qualify. In order to be Bowl Eligible, you only need to win 6 games.

This to me is a fundamental flaw of the BCS and is why I think that Big 6 conferences should get relegated with another conference has stronger teams. Like I said, you should have to earn next years status in the Big 6.


Also, only 1 non-BCS team can receive an automatic qualifier to bowl games, unless the top 2 teams in the final BCS poll are non-BCS conference teams. Otherwise, #s 1-25 could all be non-BCS, and only #s 1 and 2 would receive tickets to BCS bowl games, while the rest would go to the automatic qualifiers from the Big 6.

This strikes me a fundamentally unfair. If TCU and Boise State end up winning big in their bowl games (assuming they get them and don't just collapse at the end of the season) by any sort of margin they are going to have to re-examine this system.

[Billie Goodson]

This strikes me a fundamentally unfair. If TCU and Boise State end up winning big in their bowl games (assuming they get them and don't just collapse at the end of the season) by any sort of margin they are going to have to re-examine this system.

If an undefeated winner of a AQ conference can win it's bowl game, finishing the season undefeated, and not cause a re-examination of the system, why do you think the victories of TCU and/or Boise State would cause it?

[Shea Zellweger]

This strikes me a fundamentally unfair. If TCU and Boise State end up winning big in their bowl games (assuming they get them and don't just collapse at the end of the season) by any sort of margin they are going to have to re-examine this system.

It's about money, not ability, and chances are we will see the 6 BCS conferences break away from the NCAA in the next decade anyway, but...

The teams change every year. If TCU were to tear through the rest of their Schedule, land in the Rose Bowl, and route their opponent 65-3, that would not be an indication of the future of TCU, let alone their conference as a whole. Going by your system, the AQ gets handed off to the Mountain West Conference, which is a combined 16-17 in non-conference games this year. Boise State would win it for the WAC (which it is leaving), whose representatives for next year are 17-18 (21-18 with BSU counted). The Big East is 22-12, and the ACC is 27-15. MWC and WAC may have a couple of great teams at the top, but the Big East and ACC are still stronger top-to-bottom. BSU and TCU may be hurt by their weak conferences, or they may be perceived as better because of those conferences. Perhaps we'll see a more definitive answer next year...

[Ryan Scott]

The teams change every year. If TCU were to tear through the rest of their Schedule, land in the Rose Bowl, and route their opponent 65-3, that would not be an indication of the future of TCU, let alone their conference as a whole.

That's the thing, both Boise State and TCU returned 20 starters from last year's squad. This is the year when you can be pretty sure how good they are.

As for the conferences, the BCS will be doing a re-evaluation of automatic bids in a year or so and conference history does count. The Mountain West will be in a good position to get an automatic bid (the history of teams in the conference at the time of the evaluation count, so they'll lose Utah, but they'll gain Boise State, Nevada, and Fresno State, all solid programs).

The one sad thing is that there's no provision for taking an AQ away from a conference. Big East fans can rest easy.

[Jim Poteet]

Ok, so here's my issue with the BCS, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh do not deserve BCS bowl games. I'm no expert on the BCS but does Pitt really get a bowl game for winning the Big East even though they are not even ranked in the top 25? I thought you had to go 10-2 or better to get an automatic qualifier for a BCS bowl - they've already lost 3. If the BCS is going to have automatic qualifying conferences, relegation from AQ status should happen season to season. If the season were to end today WAC should take the Big East AQ and Mountain West should take the ACC AQ. Every year you should have to earn next year's AQ.

It is not about wins and losses per se. It is about the numbers of people watching and the number of people the teams will bring to a bowl game. BSU and TCU have small viewing audiences and a small number who will attend the game in relation to the automatic qualifier conferences.

[Jim Poteet]

This to me is a fundamental flaw of the BCS and is why I think that Big 6 conferences should get relegated with another conference has stronger teams. Like I said, you should have to earn next years status in the Big 6.



This strikes me a fundamentally unfair. If TCU and Boise State end up winning big in their bowl games (assuming they get them and don't just collapse at the end of the season) by any sort of margin they are going to have to re-examine this system.

I can assure that the conferences that BSU & TCU are in (Mountain West & WAC) are not as strong as the Big 6 automatic qualifying conferences.

[Jim Poteet]

If an undefeated winner of a AQ conference can win it's bowl game, finishing the season undefeated, and not cause a re-examination of the system, why do you think the victories of TCU and/or Boise State would cause it?

I would assume you are referring to the Auburn scenario of a few years ago.

[Billie Goodson]

I would assume you are referring to the Auburn scenario of a few years ago.

Now that you mention it, that is who it was.

[Jim Poteet]

Now that you mention it, that is who it was.


The college presidents of the 6 AQ conferences do not want a playoff. They want about 50 of their conference teams playing in bowl games. That means 25 winners and also the regular season is more meaningful as more teams become bowl eligible. Also, the bowl eligible teams get an extra 21 days of practice which then becomes like spring practice. Pressure from outside is not going to make AQ conference presidents change their mind.

Remember that Auburn was undefeated about 6 years ago and was not selected for the BCS championship game. That decision did not make the even consider a playoff. The president of the AQ conference schools could care less about Boise State and TCU. They have no interest in sharing the pot of gold. The presidents are the voting members of each of the AQ conferences.

[Billie Goodson]

The college presidents of the 6 AQ conferences do not want a playoff. They want about 50 of their conference teams playing in bowl games. That means 25 winners and also the regular season is more meaningful as more teams become bowl eligible. Also, the bowl eligible teams get an extra 21 days of practice which then becomes like spring practice. Pressure from outside is not going to make AQ conference presidents change their mind.

Remember that Auburn was undefeated about 6 years ago and was not selected for the BCS championship game. That decision did not make the even consider a playoff. The president of the AQ conference schools could care less about Boise State and TCU. They have no interest in sharing the pot of gold. The presidents are the voting members of each of the AQ conferences.

And none of the other reasons they cite come anywhere close to being valid. Like many politicians, they think Americans are very simple minded.

[Ryan Scott]

For the first time in BCS history, the top ten stayed exactly the same. So I don't think I'll do another recap. I will point out that Boise State cut the gap between themselves and TCU in half, and jumped back over TCU in the human polls. With their next two games against decent teams (one against ranked Nevada) they've got a good chance to jump TCU in the computers as well. We may see Boise State in the Rose Bowl after all.

[Kevin Rector]

It is not about wins and losses per se. It is about the numbers of people watching and the number of people the teams will bring to a bowl game. BSU and TCU have small viewing audiences and a small number who will attend the game in relation to the automatic qualifier conferences.

I know that it's all about money... I'm just saying how it ought to be, if it were actually about sports.


I can assure that the conferences that BSU & TCU are in (Mountain West & WAC) are not as strong as the Big 6 automatic qualifying conferences.

Thanks for the assurances, but I can assure you that you're wrong (big smiley here). Mountain West and WAC are much weaker than almost all of the Big 6, but at the very least you have to concede that this year Mountain West is stronger than the Big East. Especially when you consider that the BCS is really all about (from a sports rather than money perspective) putting together 5 great bowl games so the only thing that really matters is how good your top 1 to 2 teams are in a conference.

Of course I think the best way to deal with all of this (again from a fan's perspective not a money perspective) would be to just play the top 10 ranked teams in the BCS bowls - forget all the tie-ins and making sure every conference is represented. #1 plays #2 and then the other 4 bowls are determined by lottery of #3-#10.

[Jim Poteet]

I know that it's all about money... I'm just saying how it ought to be, if it were actually about sports.



Thanks for the assurances, but I can assure you that you're wrong (big smiley here). Mountain West and WAC are much weaker than almost all of the Big 6, but at the very least you have to concede that this year Mountain West is stronger than the Big East. Especially when you consider that the BCS is really all about (from a sports rather than money perspective) putting together 5 great bowl games so the only thing that really matters is how good your top 1 to 2 teams are in a conference.

Of course I think the best way to deal with all of this (again from a fan's perspective not a money perspective) would be to just play the top 10 ranked teams in the BCS bowls - forget all the tie-ins and making sure every conference is represented. #1 plays #2 and then the other 4 bowls are determined by lottery of #3-#10.

I doubt that the Mountain West is stronger than the Big East. Utah showed their strength with a real stink job against Notre Dame and Utah is the 2nd best team in the Mountain West. In fact in the Sagarin Ratings, the Mountain West is rated below the WAC and both are rated below the Big East. Both conferences are pretenders, not contenders.;)

[Ryan Scott]

Not a lot of changes this week, but we'll do a quick rundown. We're now getting into the territory where the mandatory 9 wins come into play. It looks like most everyone in the top 14 will get to nine wins this year, so I'm not sure there will be too many issues there.

If the season ended today:

National Championship Game: Oregon vs Auburn

Rose Bowl: TCU vs Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Boise State

Orange: Virginia Tech vs Ohio State

Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs Pittsburgh

I went with Boise State as the first at-large simply because it seems like a strong match-up with LSU. Lots of unpredictability on both sides. Ohio State over Stanford is purely a ticket selling decision. Stanford could easily replace either one.

[Monte Butts]

Alabama will beat Auburn at home. I say that fully acknowledging my Crimson colored glasses.

Auburn's defense is weak, and the strength of their offense matches with the strongest part of Bama's D....the front.

I watch WAY too much SEC football and even putting aside my disdain for Newton, have you seen him make too many passes that weren't wide open? He gets those looks because teams have put 8 men in the box to stop the run. Bama's weakness has been in the young secondary, but they have been very opportunistic in creating turnovers, and have looked much better since the USCar game.

TCU and Boise will be big Tide fans this week.

Utah proved to me that a small conference team can beat a BCS conf. team in a single game. That said, a playoff system would likely not get a non-AQ champion because I am still unconvinced a Boise State team could play high level competition every week without losing a game.

[Jim Franklin]

I recall that in Nov. 2006 that I did a "what if" of who might beat whom before the end of the season and that if Boise State would win it bowl game which it did over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl It would then be the only undefeated team in the nation and that is what happened. Big surprise to a lot of people. Kellen Moore is a better quarterback than Zabranski.

[Jim Poteet]

I recall that in Nov. 2006 that I did a "what if" of who might beat whom before the end of the season and that if Boise State would win it bowl game which it did over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl It would then be the only undefeated team in the nation and that is what happened. Big surprise to a lot of people. Kellen Moore is a better quarterback than Zabranski.

So what does all that mean?

[Ryan Scott]

At this point it does seem like the best case scenario for everyone outside of Auburn, Alabama - is to see Auburn lose to Alabama and get Oregon-Boise State for the title. We may also see the Rose Bowl grab an undefeated TCU squad as an at-large (if it fulfills their contract obligation to take a non-AQ school once in the next four years; I'm not sure an at-large selection will do such).

An Auburn loss to Alabama will really be tough on the voters. They'll have to decide if a one-loss Auburn team is worthy of staying ahead of undefeated Boise State. The actual BCS voters seem to be more conservative than the AP, so it will be interesting if it happens.

I think those coaches who vote in the USA Today poll respect the Boise State program. I'm not sure how the Harris voters will lean (probably towards the establishment).

[Mike Schutz]

President of The Ohio State University disses Boise State, TCU:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5845736

[Jim Poteet]

President of The Ohio State University disses Boise State, TCU:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5845736

What he says is right.

[Ryan Scott]

What he says is right.

What he says means they haven't played as tough a schedule as some of the other schools. It does not mean they're not championship calibre teams or even that they're not deserving of a spot in the championship game. There is a difference.

[Jim Poteet]

What he says means they haven't played as tough a schedule as some of the other schools. It does not mean they're not championship calibre teams or even that they're not deserving of a spot in the championship game. There is a difference.

there is?

[Ryan Scott]

there is?

It depends on what the point of the championship game is. If its to find the best team, it shouldn't matter who teams play, just whether or not their among the best.

Obviously, the BCS championship is designed to benefit the team that played the best in a big conference. In that sense, of course TCU and Boise State don't belong - they're not welcome. That doesn't mean one of them might not be one of the two best teams. We just have virtually no way to know for sure.

[John Brickley]

What he says is right.

I have to agree with Jim on this one. I do not think that an undefeated Boise State or a TCU is more deserving of a national championship game than a one loss team out of the SEC, the Big 12, or the PAC 10 (I am quite tempted to say the Big 10 as well but they really have not played that well this year). There is a significant qualitative difference between the level of competition in the SEC or PAC 10 and the Mountain West and the WAC and there is no way that I see either Boise State or TCU going through either the SEC or the PAC 10 (or the Big 12 and Big 10 for that matter) without at least a couple of losses. If you placed BSU in the SEC this year I would see them losing to South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Alabama and possibly Arkansas and Florida (they could easily end up with 5 losses in the SEC). It is a far more impressive accomplishment for an SEC team to go through with one loss than for either TCU or BSU to go undefeated.

So I think both Coach Poteet the President of Ohio State are right, to compare BSU and TCU to one of the teams from the major conferences is apples and oranges at this point. I just don't think it is a far comparison, and it is certainly not fair to teams that have to run the gauntlet of a major college conference.

[Ryan Scott]

I have to agree with Jim on this one. I do not think that an undefeated Boise State or a TCU is more deserving of a national championship game than a one loss team out of the SEC, the Big 12, or the PAC 10 (I am quite tempted to say the Big 10 as well but they really have not played that well this year).

But you're not agreeing with Jim, you're agreeing with the President of Ohio State. Being deserving is a question of opinion, not fact. Deserving is up for debate; actually being the best - there's no real way to tell.

[Ryan Scott]

I'll just say, this week is going to be a lot easier to figure out.

[Monte Butts]

Alabama will beat Auburn at home. I say that fully acknowledging my Crimson colored glasses.

Auburn's defense is weak, and the strength of their offense matches with the strongest part of Bama's D....the front.

I watch WAY too much SEC football and even putting aside my disdain for Newton, have you seen him make too many passes that weren't wide open? He gets those looks because teams have put 8 men in the box to stop the run. Bama's weakness has been in the young secondary, but they have been very opportunistic in creating turnovers, and have looked much better since the USCar game.

TCU and Boise will be big Tide fans this week.

Utah proved to me that a small conference team can beat a BCS conf. team in a single game. That said, a playoff system would likely not get a non-AQ champion because I am still unconvinced a Boise State team could play high level competition every week without losing a game.

I may have come come close to losing my salvation over the second half of the Iron Bowl yesterday:praying:

Wow, I've been watching Alabama since the first game I can remember in 1977 and I've never seen a game like that where Alabama just completely dominated Auburn on both sides of the ball for a half and then the opposite the second half.

That being said, the game came down to Alabama not taking advantage of red zone opportunities......Trent Richardson dropping the short pass for the easy touchdown, sure handed Ingram fumbling through the endzone, McElroy losing the ball and the sea of red O linemen stood there like statues not realizing the ball was on the ground letting Fairley crawl around for nearly 3 seconds around McElroy to recover.

Any of those scores would have been enough to put the game out of reach. Bama's secondary was just too young to get the stops and I underestimated Newton's passing. Still don't think he is very accurate but when he gets someone open he can make the throw.

[Bob Hunter]

I am going to make a prediction if I might, I believe the BCS title game is going to be an epic match-up between Auburn and Oregon. Cam Newton plays a very similar game to Oregon's Darren Thomas. If this occurs I think it will be a close game, with Oregon pulling away in the fourth quarter. The Oregon offense executes so quickly, they wear down defenses and create confusion on the sidelines. The Oregon defense has only allowed two scoring drives in the fourth quarter all year. I will take Oregon by 7.

[Monte Butts]

I am going to make a prediction if I might, I believe the BCS title game is going to be an epic match-up between Auburn and Oregon. Cam Newton plays a very similar game to Oregon's Darren Thomas. If this occurs I think it will be a close game, with Oregon pulling away in the fourth quarter. The Oregon offense executes so quickly, they wear down defenses and create confusion on the sidelines. The Oregon defense has only allowed two scoring drives in the fourth quarter all year. I will take Oregon by 7.

I really think Auburn may have trouble with South Carolina.

If Auburn gets by them, I could see a close game with Oregon and I'd take the other side, as Auburn's defensive strength is up front. They would be the most athletic d Oregon will have faced.

[Shea Zellweger]

I really think Auburn may have trouble with South Carolina.

If Auburn gets by them, I could see a close game with Oregon and I'd take the other side, as Auburn's defensive strength is up front. They would be the most athletic d Oregon will have faced.

I think they might have trouble with USC as well, but I don't know if that would spell the end for auburn's title hopes. Teams have gone to the BCS bowl without winning their conference before...

[Kevin Rector]

I don't see Auburn having any trouble with South Carolina. They've beaten them once. South Carolina couldn't do anything against the Arkansas offense and I don't see them stopping Newton & Co. this time either.

[Ryan Scott]

Since this is the penultimate week for the BCS, this will be a long update as we cover the conference championships and eventualities for next week. Believe it or not, all the losses really worked out quite a bit of the information.

If the season were to end today:

National Championship Game: Auburn* vs Oregon*

Rose Bowl: TCU* vs Wisconsin*

Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs Ohio State

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech* vs Stanford*

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma* vs Connecticut*

If things stay the way they are right now, there are only two at-large bids available. TCU gets an AQ courtesy of being the top ranked non-AQ conference team. Stanford gets an AQ by being ranked #4 in the BCS with another team from the same conference in the championship game.

Arkansas - Ohio State is an easy pick for the Sugar Bowl (in this scenario, they get the first two picks).

The wrench's are, of course, the games still to be decided.

Oklahoma plays Nebraska in the Big-12 Championship game. The winner heads to the Fiesta Bowl, the loser has no real shot at being selected. This one has no impact outside those two campuses.

Connecticut wins the Big-East with a win against South Florida next week. They hold the tiebreaker over WVU and Pitt. A CT loss shakes things up a bit (WVU holds the tiebreaker over Pitt). If all three lose, there's a five way tie that I'm not about to examine before it actually happens. The Big-East champ will be in the Fiesta Bowl against the Big-12 winner because the Fiesta Bowl gets last pick and the Big-East champ has to go somewhere.

The ACC Championship game pits Virginia Tech against Florida State. The winner gets the Orange Bowl.

The PAC-10 is decided. Even if Oregon loses, they still win due to a head-to-head defeat of Stanford. Although if Oregon loses and Stanford wins there's an outside chance we'll see Stanford in the BCS Championship game despite failing to win its own conference.

The SEC Championship games pits Auburn against South Carolina in a rematch of an earlier game. If SC wins, things get shook up real good. SC would go to the Sugar Bowl and things would be nuts.

The Big-10 is decided. Wisconsin wins the three way tie with the highest BCS ranking. Michigan State, despite beating Wisconsin, will most likely be left out of the BCS Bowls altogether.

So, if Oregon and Auburn win, they'll be in the Championship Game. They're in a virtual tie right now (2 ten thousands of a point difference).

If one of these teams lose, likely TCU will move into the slot and play for the title. If Oregon were to lose, they'd move to the Rose Bowl, likely only TCU and Oregon would switch bowls, nothing else would change much.

Were Oregon to lose and Stanford jump TCU into the Championship Game, Oregon would move to the Rose Bowl and TCU would likely find itself in the Fiesta Bowl (with the Orange Bowl selecting the Big-East champ).

Were Auburn to lose and TCU take their spot, South Carolina would end up in the Sugar Bowl (likely still playing Ohio State) and Auburn would move to the Orange Bowl, allowing Stanford to go to the Rose Bowl in TCU's place.

Were Auburn to lose and Sanford take their spot, Auburn would likely get Stanford's spot in the Orange Bowl.

If you're an Arkansas fan, you're rooting for Auburn this week.

[Kevin Rector]

If you're an Arkansas fan, you're rooting for Auburn this week.

Yes, yes I am.

[Kevin Rector]

I don't see Auburn having any trouble with South Carolina. They've beaten them once. South Carolina couldn't do anything against the Arkansas offense and I don't see them stopping Newton & Co. this time either.

Man did I get that one right. Auburn just obliterated South Carolina. Looks like the Razorbacks are Sugar Bowl bound!

[Ryan Scott]

So after yesterday we have a number of Bowl bids locked in. The asterisked teams are not guaranteed, but assumed based on previous BCS standings and the fact that there were no major losses since the last standings were released.

National Championship Game: Auburn* vs Oregon*

They will be #1 and #2 again. The positioning depends on whether or not some human voters shift things around a bit. Even one point to Oregon could shift positions.

Rose Bowl: TCU* vs Wisconsin*

The highest ranked non-AQ conference school gets the PAC-10's Rose Bowl bid - even if positions change I don't see how it can't be TCU, but it's not official until the rankings come out. As for Wisconsin: they win the tie in the Big-10 with the highest BCS ranking of the three. They've been ahead for weeks; there's no reason to think this will change.

Sugar Bowl:

No automatic qualifiers here. See below for likely selection procedure.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs

VT is in as winner of the ACC.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs

Oklahoma is in as winner of the Big-12.

Connecticut is in to one of the games as champion of the Big-East. They have no automatic affiliation. If Stanford remains the #4 ranked team, they will also be automatically qualified (if a team ranked #3 or #4 is in the same conference as one of the teams in the championship game - and the team in the championship game is also conference champion, they are awards automatic bids).

So, with those in play. The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick, to replace Auburn, the SEC Champion, which usually goes automatically to New Orleans. They're likely to choose Arkansas. Arkansas is the second highest ranked SEC school and will likely draw the most fans.

The Sugar Bowl also gets the second pick for the at-large teams based on a pre-determined order, which changes from year to year. They'll likely select Ohio State, runner up in the Big-10 and always a huge draw for tickets and ratings.

The Orange Bowl gets the next pick. If things have progressed as above, they must choose between Stanford and Connecticut. Connecticut is a wild card - they are an East Coast team, but one in their first big Bowl game and without a football tradition. On the other hand, Stanford would have to travel across the country and they are not a traditional power, so there's no way to know how well they'll travel. This one is a toss up. I think I'd rather see Stanford in this game, so I'll go with them.

The Fiesta Bowl chooses last. If things go as above, they will have to take Connecticut.

[Kevin Rector]

I think your analysis is dead right Ryan, nobody will really want Connecticut. However the one wild card is that it's a really really long way from Stanford to Miami, and while Stanford is a rich school, I don't think their fans travel well.

[David Morris]

TCU vs. Wisconsin will be a good game.

[Ryan Scott]

There's about 10 Bowl games I'll try to catch some of. One that's really intriguing is the Independence Bowl - Air Force vs Georgia Tech - two teams who hardly ever pass.

[Ryan Scott]

72 teams qualified for bowls. Sadly there were only 70 spots. Western Michigan and Temple were left out in the cold.

[Shea Zellweger]

I'm just hoping the Orange can make the Pinstripe Bowl...

Wish. Granted. Syracuse and Kansas State will play in the first Pinstripe Bowl, held at Yankee Stadium on Dec 30 at 3:00ish. It's on ESPN for those interested.

[Ryan Scott]

Apparently TCU has already sold out their 20,000 Rose Bowl ticket allotment. Maybe Coach Poteet was a little off saying they wouldn't travel well. Perhaps Dallas has adopted this team. Moving to the Big East, with that TV base, and apparently a solid travel following. TCU could be poised to really move up the program ranks.

[Jim Poteet]

Apparently TCU has already sold out their 20,000 Rose Bowl ticket allotment. Maybe Coach Poteet was a little off saying they wouldn't travel well. Perhaps Dallas has adopted this team. Moving to the Big East, with that TV base, and apparently a solid travel following. TCU could be poised to really move up the program ranks.

I didn't say they didn't travel well. I said that they had a small season ticket base and that is why they have a below average attendance at home games. The base group of alumni and students are quite loyal.

[Ryan Scott]

I didn't say they didn't travel well. I said that they had a small season ticket base and that is why they have a below average attendance at home games. The base group of alumni and students are quite loyal.

You're closer to the situation than am I. Could you see them being embraced by the Dallas area if they continue to do well on a national level?

[Jim Poteet]

You're closer to the situation than am I. Could you see them being embraced by the Dallas area if they continue to do well on a national level?

Probably not. If TCU could get to the point where they could average 40 thousand fans at home games on a consistent basis, that would be huge for them. In fact, the new stadium they are building will only seat 40 thousand. TCU is not a player on the national level unless they can consistently stay in the top 25 over a long period of time.

[David Morris]

Probably not. If TCU could get to the point where they could average 40 thousand fans at home games on a consistent basis, that would be huge for them. In fact, the new stadium they are building will only seat 40 thousand. TCU is not a player on the national level unless they can consistently stay in the top 25 over a long period of time.

The game is played year by year, and in 2010-11, TCU was a major player on the national level. They took care of business against another top team, went undefeated, and quieted a lot of critics (I hope).

[Mike Schutz]

Another note: UConn only sold 4,500 tickets for the Fiesta Bowl, and the game did not sell out.

[Ryan Scott]

Another note: UConn only sold 4,500 tickets for the Fiesta Bowl, and the game did not sell out.

What's more, UCONN was so bad that Oklahoma didn't sell their 17,000 ticket allotment either.