BCS Breakdown 2010-2011

[Shea Zellweger]

This strikes me a fundamentally unfair. If TCU and Boise State end up winning big in their bowl games (assuming they get them and don't just collapse at the end of the season) by any sort of margin they are going to have to re-examine this system.

It's about money, not ability, and chances are we will see the 6 BCS conferences break away from the NCAA in the next decade anyway, but...

The teams change every year. If TCU were to tear through the rest of their Schedule, land in the Rose Bowl, and route their opponent 65-3, that would not be an indication of the future of TCU, let alone their conference as a whole. Going by your system, the AQ gets handed off to the Mountain West Conference, which is a combined 16-17 in non-conference games this year. Boise State would win it for the WAC (which it is leaving), whose representatives for next year are 17-18 (21-18 with BSU counted). The Big East is 22-12, and the ACC is 27-15. MWC and WAC may have a couple of great teams at the top, but the Big East and ACC are still stronger top-to-bottom. BSU and TCU may be hurt by their weak conferences, or they may be perceived as better because of those conferences. Perhaps we'll see a more definitive answer next year...

[Ryan Scott]

The teams change every year. If TCU were to tear through the rest of their Schedule, land in the Rose Bowl, and route their opponent 65-3, that would not be an indication of the future of TCU, let alone their conference as a whole.

That's the thing, both Boise State and TCU returned 20 starters from last year's squad. This is the year when you can be pretty sure how good they are.

As for the conferences, the BCS will be doing a re-evaluation of automatic bids in a year or so and conference history does count. The Mountain West will be in a good position to get an automatic bid (the history of teams in the conference at the time of the evaluation count, so they'll lose Utah, but they'll gain Boise State, Nevada, and Fresno State, all solid programs).

The one sad thing is that there's no provision for taking an AQ away from a conference. Big East fans can rest easy.

[Jim Poteet]

Ok, so here's my issue with the BCS, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh do not deserve BCS bowl games. I'm no expert on the BCS but does Pitt really get a bowl game for winning the Big East even though they are not even ranked in the top 25? I thought you had to go 10-2 or better to get an automatic qualifier for a BCS bowl - they've already lost 3. If the BCS is going to have automatic qualifying conferences, relegation from AQ status should happen season to season. If the season were to end today WAC should take the Big East AQ and Mountain West should take the ACC AQ. Every year you should have to earn next year's AQ.

It is not about wins and losses per se. It is about the numbers of people watching and the number of people the teams will bring to a bowl game. BSU and TCU have small viewing audiences and a small number who will attend the game in relation to the automatic qualifier conferences.

[Jim Poteet]

This to me is a fundamental flaw of the BCS and is why I think that Big 6 conferences should get relegated with another conference has stronger teams. Like I said, you should have to earn next years status in the Big 6.



This strikes me a fundamentally unfair. If TCU and Boise State end up winning big in their bowl games (assuming they get them and don't just collapse at the end of the season) by any sort of margin they are going to have to re-examine this system.

I can assure that the conferences that BSU & TCU are in (Mountain West & WAC) are not as strong as the Big 6 automatic qualifying conferences.

[Jim Poteet]

If an undefeated winner of a AQ conference can win it's bowl game, finishing the season undefeated, and not cause a re-examination of the system, why do you think the victories of TCU and/or Boise State would cause it?

I would assume you are referring to the Auburn scenario of a few years ago.

[Billie Goodson]

I would assume you are referring to the Auburn scenario of a few years ago.

Now that you mention it, that is who it was.

[Jim Poteet]

Now that you mention it, that is who it was.

The college presidents of the 6 AQ conferences do not want a playoff. They want about 50 of their conference teams playing in bowl games. That means 25 winners and also the regular season is more meaningful as more teams become bowl eligible. Also, the bowl eligible teams get an extra 21 days of practice which then becomes like spring practice. Pressure from outside is not going to make AQ conference presidents change their mind.

Remember that Auburn was undefeated about 6 years ago and was not selected for the BCS championship game. That decision did not make the even consider a playoff. The president of the AQ conference schools could care less about Boise State and TCU. They have no interest in sharing the pot of gold. The presidents are the voting members of each of the AQ conferences.

[Billie Goodson]

The college presidents of the 6 AQ conferences do not want a playoff. They want about 50 of their conference teams playing in bowl games. That means 25 winners and also the regular season is more meaningful as more teams become bowl eligible. Also, the bowl eligible teams get an extra 21 days of practice which then becomes like spring practice. Pressure from outside is not going to make AQ conference presidents change their mind.

Remember that Auburn was undefeated about 6 years ago and was not selected for the BCS championship game. That decision did not make the even consider a playoff. The president of the AQ conference schools could care less about Boise State and TCU. They have no interest in sharing the pot of gold. The presidents are the voting members of each of the AQ conferences.

And none of the other reasons they cite come anywhere close to being valid. Like many politicians, they think Americans are very simple minded.

[Ryan Scott]

For the first time in BCS history, the top ten stayed exactly the same. So I don't think I'll do another recap. I will point out that Boise State cut the gap between themselves and TCU in half, and jumped back over TCU in the human polls. With their next two games against decent teams (one against ranked Nevada) they've got a good chance to jump TCU in the computers as well. We may see Boise State in the Rose Bowl after all.

[Kevin Rector]

It is not about wins and losses per se. It is about the numbers of people watching and the number of people the teams will bring to a bowl game. BSU and TCU have small viewing audiences and a small number who will attend the game in relation to the automatic qualifier conferences.

I know that it's all about money... I'm just saying how it ought to be, if it were actually about sports.

I can assure that the conferences that BSU & TCU are in (Mountain West & WAC) are not as strong as the Big 6 automatic qualifying conferences.

Thanks for the assurances, but I can assure you that you're wrong (big smiley here). Mountain West and WAC are much weaker than almost all of the Big 6, but at the very least you have to concede that this year Mountain West is stronger than the Big East. Especially when you consider that the BCS is really all about (from a sports rather than money perspective) putting together 5 great bowl games so the only thing that really matters is how good your top 1 to 2 teams are in a conference.

Of course I think the best way to deal with all of this (again from a fan's perspective not a money perspective) would be to just play the top 10 ranked teams in the BCS bowls - forget all the tie-ins and making sure every conference is represented. #1 plays #2 and then the other 4 bowls are determined by lottery of #3-#10.

[Jim Poteet]

I know that it's all about money... I'm just saying how it ought to be, if it were actually about sports.



Thanks for the assurances, but I can assure you that you're wrong (big smiley here). Mountain West and WAC are much weaker than almost all of the Big 6, but at the very least you have to concede that this year Mountain West is stronger than the Big East. Especially when you consider that the BCS is really all about (from a sports rather than money perspective) putting together 5 great bowl games so the only thing that really matters is how good your top 1 to 2 teams are in a conference.

Of course I think the best way to deal with all of this (again from a fan's perspective not a money perspective) would be to just play the top 10 ranked teams in the BCS bowls - forget all the tie-ins and making sure every conference is represented. #1 plays #2 and then the other 4 bowls are determined by lottery of #3-#10.

I doubt that the Mountain West is stronger than the Big East. Utah showed their strength with a real stink job against Notre Dame and Utah is the 2nd best team in the Mountain West. In fact in the Sagarin Ratings, the Mountain West is rated below the WAC and both are rated below the Big East. Both conferences are pretenders, not contenders.

[Ryan Scott]

Not a lot of changes this week, but we'll do a quick rundown. We're now getting into the territory where the mandatory 9 wins come into play. It looks like most everyone in the top 14 will get to nine wins this year, so I'm not sure there will be too many issues there.

If the season ended today:

National Championship Game: Oregon vs Auburn

Rose Bowl: TCU vs Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Boise State

Orange: Virginia Tech vs Ohio State

Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs Pittsburgh

I went with Boise State as the first at-large simply because it seems like a strong match-up with LSU. Lots of unpredictability on both sides. Ohio State over Stanford is purely a ticket selling decision. Stanford could easily replace either one.

[Monte Butts]

Alabama will beat Auburn at home. I say that fully acknowledging my Crimson colored glasses.

Auburn's defense is weak, and the strength of their offense matches with the strongest part of Bama's D....the front.

I watch WAY too much SEC football and even putting aside my disdain for Newton, have you seen him make too many passes that weren't wide open? He gets those looks because teams have put 8 men in the box to stop the run. Bama's weakness has been in the young secondary, but they have been very opportunistic in creating turnovers, and have looked much better since the USCar game.

TCU and Boise will be big Tide fans this week.

Utah proved to me that a small conference team can beat a BCS conf. team in a single game. That said, a playoff system would likely not get a non-AQ champion because I am still unconvinced a Boise State team could play high level competition every week without losing a game.

[Jim Franklin]

I recall that in Nov. 2006 that I did a "what if" of who might beat whom before the end of the season and that if Boise State would win it bowl game which it did over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl It would then be the only undefeated team in the nation and that is what happened. Big surprise to a lot of people. Kellen Moore is a better quarterback than Zabranski.

[Jim Poteet]

I recall that in Nov. 2006 that I did a "what if" of who might beat whom before the end of the season and that if Boise State would win it bowl game which it did over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl It would then be the only undefeated team in the nation and that is what happened. Big surprise to a lot of people. Kellen Moore is a better quarterback than Zabranski.

So what does all that mean?

[Ryan Scott]

At this point it does seem like the best case scenario for everyone outside of Auburn, Alabama - is to see Auburn lose to Alabama and get Oregon-Boise State for the title. We may also see the Rose Bowl grab an undefeated TCU squad as an at-large (if it fulfills their contract obligation to take a non-AQ school once in the next four years; I'm not sure an at-large selection will do such).

An Auburn loss to Alabama will really be tough on the voters. They'll have to decide if a one-loss Auburn team is worthy of staying ahead of undefeated Boise State. The actual BCS voters seem to be more conservative than the AP, so it will be interesting if it happens.

I think those coaches who vote in the USA Today poll respect the Boise State program. I'm not sure how the Harris voters will lean (probably towards the establishment).

[Mike Schutz]

President of The Ohio State University disses Boise State, TCU:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5845736

[Jim Poteet]

President of The Ohio State University disses Boise State, TCU:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5845736

What he says is right.

[Ryan Scott]

What he says is right.

What he says means they haven't played as tough a schedule as some of the other schools. It does not mean they're not championship calibre teams or even that they're not deserving of a spot in the championship game. There is a difference.

[Jim Poteet]

What he says means they haven't played as tough a schedule as some of the other schools. It does not mean they're not championship calibre teams or even that they're not deserving of a spot in the championship game. There is a difference.

there is?

[Ryan Scott]

there is?

It depends on what the point of the championship game is. If its to find the best team, it shouldn't matter who teams play, just whether or not their among the best.

Obviously, the BCS championship is designed to benefit the team that played the best in a big conference. In that sense, of course TCU and Boise State don't belong - they're not welcome. That doesn't mean one of them might not be one of the two best teams. We just have virtually no way to know for sure.

[John Brickley]

What he says is right.

I have to agree with Jim on this one. I do not think that an undefeated Boise State or a TCU is more deserving of a national championship game than a one loss team out of the SEC, the Big 12, or the PAC 10 (I am quite tempted to say the Big 10 as well but they really have not played that well this year). There is a significant qualitative difference between the level of competition in the SEC or PAC 10 and the Mountain West and the WAC and there is no way that I see either Boise State or TCU going through either the SEC or the PAC 10 (or the Big 12 and Big 10 for that matter) without at least a couple of losses. If you placed BSU in the SEC this year I would see them losing to South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Alabama and possibly Arkansas and Florida (they could easily end up with 5 losses in the SEC). It is a far more impressive accomplishment for an SEC team to go through with one loss than for either TCU or BSU to go undefeated.

So I think both Coach Poteet the President of Ohio State are right, to compare BSU and TCU to one of the teams from the major conferences is apples and oranges at this point. I just don't think it is a far comparison, and it is certainly not fair to teams that have to run the gauntlet of a major college conference.

[Ryan Scott]

I have to agree with Jim on this one. I do not think that an undefeated Boise State or a TCU is more deserving of a national championship game than a one loss team out of the SEC, the Big 12, or the PAC 10 (I am quite tempted to say the Big 10 as well but they really have not played that well this year).

But you're not agreeing with Jim, you're agreeing with the President of Ohio State. Being deserving is a question of opinion, not fact. Deserving is up for debate; actually being the best - there's no real way to tell.

[Ryan Scott]

I'll just say, this week is going to be a lot easier to figure out.

[Monte Butts]

Alabama will beat Auburn at home. I say that fully acknowledging my Crimson colored glasses.

Auburn's defense is weak, and the strength of their offense matches with the strongest part of Bama's D....the front.

I watch WAY too much SEC football and even putting aside my disdain for Newton, have you seen him make too many passes that weren't wide open? He gets those looks because teams have put 8 men in the box to stop the run. Bama's weakness has been in the young secondary, but they have been very opportunistic in creating turnovers, and have looked much better since the USCar game.

TCU and Boise will be big Tide fans this week.

Utah proved to me that a small conference team can beat a BCS conf. team in a single game. That said, a playoff system would likely not get a non-AQ champion because I am still unconvinced a Boise State team could play high level competition every week without losing a game.

I may have come come close to losing my salvation over the second half of the Iron Bowl yesterday

Wow, I've been watching Alabama since the first game I can remember in 1977 and I've never seen a game like that where Alabama just completely dominated Auburn on both sides of the ball for a half and then the opposite the second half.

That being said, the game came down to Alabama not taking advantage of red zone opportunities......Trent Richardson dropping the short pass for the easy touchdown, sure handed Ingram fumbling through the endzone, McElroy losing the ball and the sea of red O linemen stood there like statues not realizing the ball was on the ground letting Fairley crawl around for nearly 3 seconds around McElroy to recover.

Any of those scores would have been enough to put the game out of reach. Bama's secondary was just too young to get the stops and I underestimated Newton's passing. Still don't think he is very accurate but when he gets someone open he can make the throw.

[Bob Hunter]

I am going to make a prediction if I might, I believe the BCS title game is going to be an epic match-up between Auburn and Oregon. Cam Newton plays a very similar game to Oregon's Darren Thomas. If this occurs I think it will be a close game, with Oregon pulling away in the fourth quarter. The Oregon offense executes so quickly, they wear down defenses and create confusion on the sidelines. The Oregon defense has only allowed two scoring drives in the fourth quarter all year. I will take Oregon by 7.

[Monte Butts]

I am going to make a prediction if I might, I believe the BCS title game is going to be an epic match-up between Auburn and Oregon. Cam Newton plays a very similar game to Oregon's Darren Thomas. If this occurs I think it will be a close game, with Oregon pulling away in the fourth quarter. The Oregon offense executes so quickly, they wear down defenses and create confusion on the sidelines. The Oregon defense has only allowed two scoring drives in the fourth quarter all year. I will take Oregon by 7.

I really think Auburn may have trouble with South Carolina.

If Auburn gets by them, I could see a close game with Oregon and I'd take the other side, as Auburn's defensive strength is up front. They would be the most athletic d Oregon will have faced.

[Shea Zellweger]

I really think Auburn may have trouble with South Carolina.

If Auburn gets by them, I could see a close game with Oregon and I'd take the other side, as Auburn's defensive strength is up front. They would be the most athletic d Oregon will have faced.

I think they might have trouble with USC as well, but I don't know if that would spell the end for auburn's title hopes. Teams have gone to the BCS bowl without winning their conference before...

[Kevin Rector]

I don't see Auburn having any trouble with South Carolina. They've beaten them once. South Carolina couldn't do anything against the Arkansas offense and I don't see them stopping Newton & Co. this time either.

[Ryan Scott]

Since this is the penultimate week for the BCS, this will be a long update as we cover the conference championships and eventualities for next week. Believe it or not, all the losses really worked out quite a bit of the information.

If the season were to end today:

National Championship Game: Auburn* vs Oregon*

Rose Bowl: TCU* vs Wisconsin*

Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs Ohio State

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech* vs Stanford*

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma* vs Connecticut*

If things stay the way they are right now, there are only two at-large bids available. TCU gets an AQ courtesy of being the top ranked non-AQ conference team. Stanford gets an AQ by being ranked #4 in the BCS with another team from the same conference in the championship game.

Arkansas - Ohio State is an easy pick for the Sugar Bowl (in this scenario, they get the first two picks).

The wrench's are, of course, the games still to be decided.

Oklahoma plays Nebraska in the Big-12 Championship game. The winner heads to the Fiesta Bowl, the loser has no real shot at being selected. This one has no impact outside those two campuses.

Connecticut wins the Big-East with a win against South Florida next week. They hold the tiebreaker over WVU and Pitt. A CT loss shakes things up a bit (WVU holds the tiebreaker over Pitt). If all three lose, there's a five way tie that I'm not about to examine before it actually happens. The Big-East champ will be in the Fiesta Bowl against the Big-12 winner because the Fiesta Bowl gets last pick and the Big-East champ has to go somewhere.

The ACC Championship game pits Virginia Tech against Florida State. The winner gets the Orange Bowl.

The PAC-10 is decided. Even if Oregon loses, they still win due to a head-to-head defeat of Stanford. Although if Oregon loses and Stanford wins there's an outside chance we'll see Stanford in the BCS Championship game despite failing to win its own conference.

The SEC Championship games pits Auburn against South Carolina in a rematch of an earlier game. If SC wins, things get shook up real good. SC would go to the Sugar Bowl and things would be nuts.

The Big-10 is decided. Wisconsin wins the three way tie with the highest BCS ranking. Michigan State, despite beating Wisconsin, will most likely be left out of the BCS Bowls altogether.

So, if Oregon and Auburn win, they'll be in the Championship Game. They're in a virtual tie right now (2 ten thousands of a point difference).

If one of these teams lose, likely TCU will move into the slot and play for the title. If Oregon were to lose, they'd move to the Rose Bowl, likely only TCU and Oregon would switch bowls, nothing else would change much.

Were Oregon to lose and Stanford jump TCU into the Championship Game, Oregon would move to the Rose Bowl and TCU would likely find itself in the Fiesta Bowl (with the Orange Bowl selecting the Big-East champ).

Were Auburn to lose and TCU take their spot, South Carolina would end up in the Sugar Bowl (likely still playing Ohio State) and Auburn would move to the Orange Bowl, allowing Stanford to go to the Rose Bowl in TCU's place.

Were Auburn to lose and Sanford take their spot, Auburn would likely get Stanford's spot in the Orange Bowl.

If you're an Arkansas fan, you're rooting for Auburn this week.

[Kevin Rector]

If you're an Arkansas fan, you're rooting for Auburn this week.

Yes, yes I am.

[Kevin Rector]

I don't see Auburn having any trouble with South Carolina. They've beaten them once. South Carolina couldn't do anything against the Arkansas offense and I don't see them stopping Newton & Co. this time either.

Man did I get that one right. Auburn just obliterated South Carolina. Looks like the Razorbacks are Sugar Bowl bound!

[Ryan Scott]

So after yesterday we have a number of Bowl bids locked in. The asterisked teams are not guaranteed, but assumed based on previous BCS standings and the fact that there were no major losses since the last standings were released.

National Championship Game: Auburn* vs Oregon*

They will be #1 and #2 again. The positioning depends on whether or not some human voters shift things around a bit. Even one point to Oregon could shift positions.

Rose Bowl: TCU* vs Wisconsin*

The highest ranked non-AQ conference school gets the PAC-10's Rose Bowl bid - even if positions change I don't see how it can't be TCU, but it's not official until the rankings come out. As for Wisconsin: they win the tie in the Big-10 with the highest BCS ranking of the three. They've been ahead for weeks; there's no reason to think this will change.

Sugar Bowl:

No automatic qualifiers here. See below for likely selection procedure.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs

VT is in as winner of the ACC.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs

Oklahoma is in as winner of the Big-12.

Connecticut is in to one of the games as champion of the Big-East. They have no automatic affiliation. If Stanford remains the #4 ranked team, they will also be automatically qualified (if a team ranked #3 or #4 is in the same conference as one of the teams in the championship game - and the team in the championship game is also conference champion, they are awards automatic bids).

So, with those in play. The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick, to replace Auburn, the SEC Champion, which usually goes automatically to New Orleans. They're likely to choose Arkansas. Arkansas is the second highest ranked SEC school and will likely draw the most fans.

The Sugar Bowl also gets the second pick for the at-large teams based on a pre-determined order, which changes from year to year. They'll likely select Ohio State, runner up in the Big-10 and always a huge draw for tickets and ratings.

The Orange Bowl gets the next pick. If things have progressed as above, they must choose between Stanford and Connecticut. Connecticut is a wild card - they are an East Coast team, but one in their first big Bowl game and without a football tradition. On the other hand, Stanford would have to travel across the country and they are not a traditional power, so there's no way to know how well they'll travel. This one is a toss up. I think I'd rather see Stanford in this game, so I'll go with them.

The Fiesta Bowl chooses last. If things go as above, they will have to take Connecticut.

[Kevin Rector]

I think your analysis is dead right Ryan, nobody will really want Connecticut. However the one wild card is that it's a really really long way from Stanford to Miami, and while Stanford is a rich school, I don't think their fans travel well.

[David Morris]

TCU vs. Wisconsin will be a good game.

[Ryan Scott]

There's about 10 Bowl games I'll try to catch some of. One that's really intriguing is the Independence Bowl - Air Force vs Georgia Tech - two teams who hardly ever pass.

[Ryan Scott]

72 teams qualified for bowls. Sadly there were only 70 spots. Western Michigan and Temple were left out in the cold.

[Shea Zellweger]

I'm just hoping the Orange can make the Pinstripe Bowl...

Wish. Granted. Syracuse and Kansas State will play in the first Pinstripe Bowl, held at Yankee Stadium on Dec 30 at 3:00ish. It's on ESPN for those interested.

[Ryan Scott]

Apparently TCU has already sold out their 20,000 Rose Bowl ticket allotment. Maybe Coach Poteet was a little off saying they wouldn't travel well. Perhaps Dallas has adopted this team. Moving to the Big East, with that TV base, and apparently a solid travel following. TCU could be poised to really move up the program ranks.

[Jim Poteet]

Apparently TCU has already sold out their 20,000 Rose Bowl ticket allotment. Maybe Coach Poteet was a little off saying they wouldn't travel well. Perhaps Dallas has adopted this team. Moving to the Big East, with that TV base, and apparently a solid travel following. TCU could be poised to really move up the program ranks.

I didn't say they didn't travel well. I said that they had a small season ticket base and that is why they have a below average attendance at home games. The base group of alumni and students are quite loyal.