Duncan is a great player, but there have been a few great ones before him. I think you may overestimate where he lands in the halls of greatness.Originally Posted by David Morris
Duncan is a great player, but there have been a few great ones before him. I think you may overestimate where he lands in the halls of greatness.
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You need to go butt a stump, so you can clear your head.
Not overestimated at all. Look at his total body of work, and compare it to Wilt, MJ, or KAJ, Russell...he is on par. I don't care if he is playing the game 20 or 30 years later than some of these guys...he is one of the greatest players in NBA history.
That is a big if. He needs to keep up his current production for another decade. Landing the wrong way after a layup can end all of that in the first game next season. If he stays healthy, LeBron will definitely be one of the best to ever play the game. However, you are comparing what LeBron might do to what Tim Duncan has done. Give it 15 years, then we'll know.
I'd take Duncan and David Robinson over Shaq everyday of the week. Compare their advanced stats.
He is a great player. I love the way he plays. But he may not be in the top 5.
Ok....
PER:
(career)
Shaq: 26.43 (3rd all time)
DRob: 26.18 (4th all time)
Duncan: 24.75 (9th all time)
(playoffs)
Shaq: 26.1 (4th all time)
DRob: 23.0 (15th all time)
Duncan: 25.3 (6th all time)
(5-year Peak RegSeas)
Shaq: 30.1 (3rd all-time behind MJ and Wilt) --- (LeBron is 4th all time, 29.9)
DRob: 28.2
Duncan: 26.2
(7-year peak)
Shaq: 29.6
DRob: 27.8
Duncan: 25.9
(10-year Peak)
Shaq: 29.1 (2nd all-time to Michael Jordan)
DRob: 27.4
Duncan: 25.5
Win Shares:
Career:
Shaq: 181.7 (.208 per 48)
DRob: 178.7 (.250 per 48)
Duncan: 175.9 (.215 per 48)
Playoffs:
Shaq: 31.1 (.184 per 48)
DRob: 17.5 (.199 per 48)
Duncan: 30.6 (.198 per 48)
(5-year peak)
Shaq: 69.9 (.248 per 48)
DRob: 82.7 (.263 per 48)
Duncan: 73.6 (.234 per 48)
(7-year peak)
Shaq: 89.9 (.244 per 48)
Drob: 114.8 (.260 per 48)
Duncan: 95.7 (.229 per 48)
(10-year peak)
Shaq: 134.9 (.236 per 48)
DRob: 137.8 (.261 per 48)
Duncan: 129.9 (.223 per 48)
Shaq absolutely crushes the two of them in PER, dominating each category except for career total. As far as WS goes, Robinson was incredibly impressive, but consistently failed to deliver in the playoffs. Also, due to his lack of longevity and choice to leave early, he loses a lot of career value. Thus, his per-minute dominance doesn't translate to total value over the course of a career. Duncan comes in first in WS, considering he'll have them both beat in totals by the end of next season's playoffs. His peak wasn't as impressive, but he gets big points for longevity and maintaining a high level of performance every year.
Duncan also takes MVPs, while Shaq and Duncan are tied for Titles and Finals MVPs.
Robinson was without a doubt the most talented of the group, but he wasn't nearly as good in the playoffs and that is the thing that will always hurt his career. Shaq was the most dominant of the 3 and the only thing that kept him from being the most dominant player in NBA history was his work ethic and conditioning, and even he has acknowledged that, in hindsight, he wishes he'd have taken care of himself better. No one could have stopped him from accomplishing anything he wanted.
Duncan will go down as the best of the 3 when he hangs the shoes up, and I would likely put him over West when he's done. For now, I have to give it to Shaq because for all we know Duncan may never play another game (I know, chances are slim, but still). When he retires, and possibly simply after next season, I'd have Duncan over him.
Still, though...
Michael
Wilt
KAJ
Will always be above him and, in all likelihood, LeBron will finish above him also. From there, he's in the discussion with guys like Bird and Magic, depending upon how high up you put Bird. Top 5 will certainly be an argument when he retires. But, again, I have zero doubts LeBron will be above him, with those other 3.
Btw, I realized I shoulda taken that to top10, in which case I'd include
Hakeem
Russel
From there, DRob I put probably around 15ish, with guys like Pettit, Barkley, Mikan, Moses, and Karl.
Garnett
Oscar
Kobe
Probably all deserve to be in there over DRob and those guys. I would put LeBron in there with them already. To put it into perspective.... I don't think LeBron has missed two consecutive games at a time with an injury in his entire 9-year career at this point.
To put LeBron's career into perspective already, this is from an acquaintance who works for ESPN and Elias Sports Bureau in response to the question about whether LeBron is the greatest 1-time champion in league history.
I have a soft spot for West, as I think he was on some mediocre teams and if he had the benefit of ORB and 3Pt being considered in his career, his PER and WS numbers would be much more impressive. He'd probably be the 2nd or 3rd best wing player ever in those terms if he had those to his credit. Turnovers might have hurt, though. Luckily, as era-adjusted statistics, it wouldn't hurt as much, considering turnovers were more common back then in the track-meet days.I would say yes and rather easily
Edit:
For one time champions, you are talking about: Oscar, Jerry West, Moses Malone, Kevin Garnett, Dirk, Bob Pettit, etc. (based off this list)
I think you could make a case for guys like Oscar, West and Moses and right now LBJ is with those 3 from 11-14 all-time. His accomplishments do exceed them though
A closer look at the one-time champion accomplishments:
Moses- 3x MVP, 4x 1st team All-NBA, 2x All-defensive team, led the league in PER 2x, led the league in WS 2x, and led the league in WS/48 once
Oscar- 1x MVP, 9x 1st team All-NBA, led the league in WS 1x
Jerry West- 10x 1st team All-NBA, 5x All-defensive team (4 1st team), led the league in PER 2x, led the league in WS 1x, led the league in WS/48 1x
Lebron- 3x MVP, 6x 1st team All-NBA, 4x All-defensive 1st team, led the league in PER 5 straight years, led the league in WS 4 straight years, led the league in WS/48 4 straight years
From an individual dominance standpoint, I think he has Moses, Oscar and West beat. Obviously, he doesn't have the longevity that those guys have but he already has more 1st team selections than Moses (who had Kareem who was hogging 1st team), more MVPs than either West or Oscar and more defensive 1st teams than Oscar or Moses. And then unlike Oscar, he has a Finals MVP. And unlike both Oscar and West, Lebron was unquestionably the #1 on his teams run to the ship (where Kareem and Wilt were rather huge parts of Oscar and West's ships respectively). And thats not even mentioning his superior peak statistically.
Last edited by Benjamin Burch; June 25th, 2012 at 06:46 AM.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
To add to the last post:
Shaq was a more efficient passer and rebounder than Robinson. Duncan, again, wins those categories. Duncan was also the best defensively out of the group.
Eh, I wouldn't argue with putting Duncan over Shaq already.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!Post Thanks / Like - 1 Thanks, 0 LaughingBob Hunter - "thanks" for this post
I appreciate the effort put into your post, but I'll still take the Twin Towers over Shaq. Three things stand out to me:
1. Shaq needed Kobe and D-Wade to win his championships. He went other places and failed to deliver on his promises to bring home a championship. David Robinson never had that earlier in his career, and I do agree he wouldn't have any trophies without Duncan.
2. I'd also argue the above bolded point about Robinson's longevity and career value. Shaq retired at 38, and Robinson at 37. However, Shaq got a 4 year head start on career length. Robinson played a full 4 years and then served in the military for two years after his graduation from the Naval Academy. I'll take that kind of guy in my clubhouse any day.
3. An added bonus, Robinson is the most ripped player ever.
Ben,
You have a lot of time on your hands! Maybe you need to go back to school or become a sports commentator?
I'm sure you will succeed at whatever you do so long as you quite drinking that devil's juice and passing VD's.
I appreciate the nice exchange. If I'm taking someone in their prime to win me a 7-game series, though, there's no question who I'm picking... Shaquille O'Neil. However, you never have such a scenario. You have a season to win enough games out of 82 to give yourself good matchups in the playoffs, in order to win 16 before losing 4 out of 7. In that scenario.... I'd probably take Duncan.I appreciate the effort put into your post, but I'll still take the Twin Towers over Shaq. Three things stand out to me:
Either way, DRob is an easy bronze medal out of the 3.
Everyone needed someone to win championships. That is why I didn't use championships as a measure... I looked at individual productivity. Jerry West, LeBron James and Michael Jordan are proof that you can produce at INSANELY high levels and still not win championships.... while Kobe is proof you can produce at incredibly low levels and still win championships.1. Shaq needed Kobe and D-Wade to win his championships. He went other places and failed to deliver on his promises to bring home a championship. David Robinson never had that earlier in his career, and I do agree he wouldn't have any trophies without Duncan.
The fact remains that DRob's production and performance routinely dropped off in the playoffs. That has nothing to do with having someone else to win or not.
If we're talking about kinds of guys you want in your clubhouse, DRob and Duncan are 1A and 1B all-time, and you should be proud to have had them on your team. There isn't one player I'd rather have in my clubhouse all-time than those two guys. The question of who I want on the basketball court is a very different question than that. I want DRob over Wilt in my clubhouse every day of the week, and twice on Sundays. I want Wilt on the basketball court over DRob even more often.2. I'd also argue the above bolded point about Robinson's longevity and career value. Shaq retired at 38, and Robinson at 37. However, Shaq got a 4 year head start on career length. Robinson played a full 4 years and then served in the military for two years after his graduation from the Naval Academy. I'll take that kind of guy in my clubhouse any day.
As per your point, it is poor statistical theory. Shaq didn't actually get a "head start". Instead, I suggest you read this short article on The Iceberg Factor. It is about football, but the same math and theory applies. DRob forfeited years of lower productivity by starting at a higher physical level than if he hadn't taken 4 years off. He also quit early, seeing as he was still above the leage-average production (17.8 PER -- 15 being league-average). Also, "league average" is valuable, considering an average player is better than half the league, and better than a replacement player. Thus, he cut off the early years of mistakes and late years of decline that Shaq and Ducnan have, which is why his PER and WS/48 are actually inflated. Also, because of his 4 years off, his body had taken less of a beating by age 37 then Shaq or Duncan's, due to far less games/minutes being played. His decline would have started later.
If he'd have started earlier, he likely would have declined earlier, and would have had a lower PER and WS/48, but probably be somewhere around the 190-200 WS level, which would have helped his case. At the end of the day, your value over your career is not simply a per-minute thing, but a per game, per year, and per career thing. If Shaq had taken his health and conditioning more seriously, he would have buried everyone in the NBA's history, because he wouldn't have suffered as many injuries, would have played more minutes, more games, more years, and would have added a lot more value to his career.
He didn't. That matters. If it matters for Shaq, it matters for DRob, whatever the reason for this reality. At the end of the day, we're talking about the overall greatness of their careers. Longevity matters.
No doubt. Although, Alonzo Mourning is a pretty good #2.3. An added bonus, Robinson is the most ripped player ever.
I'd still take Karl Malone and LeBron James' physiques over anyone else in league history. Again, though, if Shaq had taken his conditioning seriously, he would have been simply superhuman. There is a reason he has a Superman tattoo.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
Actually, have we already forgotten about Ben Wallace!?
Ben challenges DRob for #1. For sure.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
Let me add, I put more stock in Hollinger's PER than I do in Basketball Reference's WinShares. It is based more upon pace-adjusted statistics and more research into the overall weighted value of specific events in determining the value (outcome) of possessions.
BTW, HoopsData has modified Hollinger's PER, adjusting it to reflect actual Assisted/Non-assisted shot totals, as opposed to using weighted estimates. This is huge, as it gives another way to reward a wing-player for shot-creation and not penalizing him for shooting a lower percentage than a Center.
For example, Dwyane Wade and Kevin Durant had very similar PER this year, with Wade having the slightest of edges (26.39 -- 26.43). However, when adjusted for actual assisted/unassisted, Wade's trumps Durant significantly:
27.37 --- 26.06
Again, Durant's season was more valuable based upon his total minutes played, as compared to Wade's, due to injuries (which explains why Wade was only a 3rd team All-NBA selection, despite his 1st team productivity. Now, if we could just get the AP to wake up and realize that Kobe is not 1st team anymore, and had a miserable season... we'd be making progress in the analytic community).
I'm gonna go do some research on the math behind Hollinger's conversion of PER into Estimated Wins Added, which takes the per-minute production of PER and translates it into a total value based upon how many minutes they were able to give their team.
Essentially, someone who gives you a value of 5 over 100 minutes is not as valuable as someone who gives you a value of 4 over 140 minutes. I'll see if I can go back and do some adjustments to the PER work I did, and see if that helps DRob any in the PER comparison. Shaq posted high PERs, but missed a lot of games, which, while not reflected in PER, is reflected in WinShares, and is a large reason for the disparity between the two comparisons.
I'll also see how far back HoopData has done the adjustments to PER, as that could be interesting as well.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
This should say it all.Actually, have we already forgotten about Ben Wallace!?
Ben challenges DRob for #1. For sure.
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Okay... I ran the math. Took me a little bit. Also, I had to run some adjustments to the PER numbers in the first post, because of the fact that I had previously included a year where Robinson only played 6 games as one of his years in the "Peak" sections, which artificially inflated his numbers. The new figures are more accurate. Anyways, below are the Estimated Wins Added for the two centers.
Shaq's 2nd best year came in the lockout-shortened season of 1998-1999, and so Shaq is actually penalized for minutes during his best season, and it scores as a year of poor health when Shaq was actually very healthy, missing only 1 game. Therefore, I pro-rated his performance across an 82-game season. This gives him 80 games played, which seems accurate given that he played 79 the next season and 74 the one after that. Shaq was healthy during this period.
For Career and 10-year peaks I pro-rated for both players, because this would reward both, while giving Shaq the added bonus for this being his 2nd best season. It scored out as an extra 10.67 EWA for Shaq, and an extra 7.0 EWA for Robinson.
EWA:
(Career)
Shaq: 340.80
DRob: 272.64
(5-year Peak)
Shaq: 134.35
DRob: 132.30
(7-year Peak)
Shaq: 170.09
DRob: 181.46
(10-year Peak)
Shaq: 240.38
DRob: 222.78
(Playoffs)
Shaq: 62.45
DRob: 26.04
So, this changes things a little bit. Robinson's 7 year peak was more valuable than Shaq's, because Robinson was on the floor more. However, Shaq's 5, year, 10-year, Career, and Playoffs all trump Robinson's. At the end of the day, those, to me, are a little more important, particularly playoffs.
However, I'm going to go dig up a methodology over at FootballReference for weighing peak years versus decline years, and I'll see what a composite score would look like. Just for fun.
Another fun factoid, just to show you how unstoppable Shaq was from the field....
True Shooting% (FT Included)
Shaq: .586
DRob: .583
So, they're essentially equally efficient scorers, with Shaq getting the extremely slight edge.
But from the field?
Effective Field Goal%
Shaq: .582
DRob. .519
Not. Even. Close.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!Post Thanks / Like - 1 Thanks, 0 Laughing
Fun fact about David Robinson.... he went to High School 1 mile from where my brother went to school his Jr. year. About 2 miles from where my parents live! Never knew that until just now.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
I think all this stuff is just a bunch of gobbleygock,Okay... I ran the math. Took me a little bit. Also, I had to run some adjustments to the PER numbers in the first post, because of the fact that I had previously included a year where Robinson only played 6 games as one of his years in the "Peak" sections, which artificially inflated his numbers. The new figures are more accurate. Anyways, below are the Estimated Wins Added for the two centers.
Shaq's 2nd best year came in the lockout-shortened season of 1998-1999, and so Shaq is actually penalized for minutes during his best season, and it scores as a year of poor health when Shaq was actually very healthy, missing only 1 game. Therefore, I pro-rated his performance across an 82-game season. This gives him 80 games played, which seems accurate given that he played 79 the next season and 74 the one after that. Shaq was healthy during this period.
For Career and 10-year peaks I pro-rated for both players, because this would reward both, while giving Shaq the added bonus for this being his 2nd best season. It scored out as an extra 10.67 EWA for Shaq, and an extra 7.0 EWA for Robinson.
EWA:
(Career)
Shaq: 340.80
DRob: 272.64
(5-year Peak)
Shaq: 134.35
DRob: 132.30
(7-year Peak)
Shaq: 170.09
DRob: 181.46
(10-year Peak)
Shaq: 240.38
DRob: 222.78
(Playoffs)
Shaq: 62.45
DRob: 26.04
So, this changes things a little bit. Robinson's 7 year peak was more valuable than Shaq's, because Robinson was on the floor more. However, Shaq's 5, year, 10-year, Career, and Playoffs all trump Robinson's. At the end of the day, those, to me, are a little more important, particularly playoffs.
However, I'm going to go dig up a methodology over at FootballReference for weighing peak years versus decline years, and I'll see what a composite score would look like. Just for fun.
Another fun factoid, just to show you how unstoppable Shaq was from the field....
True Shooting% (FT Included)
Shaq: .586
DRob: .583
So, they're essentially equally efficient scorers, with Shaq getting the extremely slight edge.
But from the field?
Effective Field Goal%
Shaq: .582
DRob. .519
Not. Even. Close.
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It is all based upon very strong research and theory that I think you'd agree with (for the most part) if you researched it.I think all this stuff is just a bunch of gobbleygock,
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
I am most interested in the five players that play the best together. We have programs now that show which group of 5 played the best and gained points during their time on the court. I like those programs. However, the game is much too complex and free flowing both offensively & defensively to rely on pure statistics. I love the game, but I am not going to spend hours of time researching PER's, GIF's, NZB's, ACG's, RPT's, CBN's, MSB's, EHT's, PKG's, SYR's, VRP's & KLR's. I might as well just speak in "tongues."It is all based upon very strong research and theory that I think you'd agree with (for the most part) if you researched it.
There's no doubt about that. I'm not sure anyone is saying that we should rely solely on statistics. Instead, I was responding directly to to David's question about the comparison of their advanced statistics.I am most interested in the five players that play the best together. We have programs now that show which group of 5 played the best and gained points during their time on the court. I like those programs. However, the game is much too complex and free flowing both offensively & defensively to rely on pure statistics. I love the game, but I am not going to spend hours of time researching PER's, GIF's, NZB's, ACG's, RPT's, CBN's, MSB's, EHT's, PKG's, SYR's, VRP's & KLR's. I might as well just speak in "tongues."
I also agree that discussion about 5-man units is always more valuable and important for discussing winning games as a team, no doubt.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
I just like that you've been doing research on Duncan and Robinson...looks like I may have sparked your curiosity. Regardless of what advanced statistics show, Shaq-Duncan-Robinson will go down as 3 of the greatest big men to ever play the game.
I'd done a lot of it before. They're two of my favorite players (prob 2 of top 10) and I actually like both of them more than I ever liked Shaq as a player.
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
The OKC Thunder have been getting incrementally better. When you think how new they are to the league, it's amazing how far they've come in so short a time. And as an adopted Oklahoman, I think it's amazing how supportive OKCers especially have been of the team.
Next year, the title is ours.
Thunder Up!
"Lost people matter to God, and so they must matter to us." - Keith Wright, former D.S., Kansas City District (CotN)
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Durant should have been a Trail Blazer...but then, so should Michael Jordan.
The Blazers did well in the draft, but they have the dubious distinction of picking two of the biggest #1 draft flops in history: Sam Bowie and Greg Oden.
Technically, they're not really new, and they had a 4-year tanking phase where they stock-piled high draft picks, so I'm not that surprised at their rise after that point.
And you're going to have to come through us for a long time. Tell your boys to learn how to play defense like champs and then you'll beat us!
- Ben
Christ is risen from the dead, trampling down death by death! And to those in the tombs, bestowing life!
Χριστὸς ἀνέστη ἐκ νεκρῶν, θανάτῳ θάνατον πατήσας! καὶ τοῖς ἐν τοῖς μνήμασι, ζωὴν χαρισάμενος!
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