Heat in 6. If it goes to 7, I'll give the Thunder the advantage, since they'll be at home.
Just FYI, LeBron James has scored 25+ twice in 10 NBA finals games. However, you know what's fun? Arbitrary endpoints. If we say he scored 25, or 24, what is the justification for setting 25 as the endpoint? Why not 24? Why not 30? Is there a correlation between star players scoring points and their teams winning, with a significant increase at 25 points?
LeBron has scored 24+ points in 5 of his 10 Finals games.
Ultimately, this is a tough series matchup-wise for both teams. Are the Heat going to assign LeBron to Durant all game, and risk him being less effective on offense because of it? Or, instead, will Bosh guard Durant, and LeBron guard Ibaka, except on big possessions and in the 4th quarter?
Who are the Thunder going to assign to James? James vs. Durant on both sides of the court all game long is an advantage to the Heat, since LeBron is a far superior defender to Durant, and they're essentially equal scorers (
James 60.5%TS, Durant 61%TS). Instead, is OKC going to put Ibaka on James? What do you do with Durant then? Thabo will be guarding Wade....
I assume we'll be seeing a lot more zone defense out of these teams than we're used to seeing. The matchups are tough in both directions, and the zone could be very effective in limiting those mismatches, and leaving their offensive stars with energy on the offensive end.
The big question is Bosh's health. Is he 100% yet? Or, at least, back to normal? I think Wade will be okay. He did this last year.... sucked for the 1st half of games, came alive in the 4th quarters, and then lit up the NBA Finals. If Bosh is not normal, expect Ibaka and Perkins to have their way, and the Thunder wrap this up within 6 games. if Bosh is his normal, healthy self, I think the Heat should take this in 6.
Westbrook has shot 30% from the field against the Heat in the last 2 years, and Chalmers has his number. If we can limit Durant's effectiveness, Westbrook will be more than happy to shoot the Thunder out of a championship. We'll see if we can actually accomplish that. Durant is just too good, and I doubt we'll risk LeBron expending all his energy guarding him all game.
This will be fun. Lots of questions, and it'll be fun to see how each coach navigates these issues, and what moves, adjustments, schemes they implement in Game 1 to deal with them. This could turn out to be a coaching battle, between a couple of young, mediocre coaches.