http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
As they say on Babylon 5: "And so it begins."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
As they say on Babylon 5: "And so it begins."
Post Thanks / Like - 1 Thanks, 0 LaughingTinker Boyd - "thanks" for this post
So, the big question is, what happens if this tracks into the Gulf of Mexico and right into and through the BP oil mess?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20100601/ts_csm/305256Originally Posted by David Troxler
That is a concern, but as a person who lives just a few miles from the Gulf other concerns come to mind.
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Perhaps this one, at least, will be over before it starts. Probability of promotion has dropped from high to medium.
Wilson
"But by the grace of God I am what I am." (1 Cor. 15:10)Post Thanks / Like - 1 Thanks, 0 Laughing
You are right Wilson, it's dropped down to 20% which is good news for both the oil spill crews and all of us who live in the line of fire.
They're predicting a more active hurricane season this year. Generally speaking that threatens Florida more than anyone else. Our western Gulf location usually doesn't come into play till August or September although there have been many storms earlier than that.
Around here, since our main hurricane time is later we watch for the first cold front of the fall - usually late September to not only break the grip of the miserable humid heat but to "inoculate" us from a hurricane. Of course, we're a very long time from an inoculation right now!
"Alex" is a product of the same tropical disturbance that prompted me to start this thread. As the disturbance tracked west/nw the probability status got so low that it wasn't even tracked for a few days, but now it's our first named storm of the season.
At this time it looks as though it's going to stay south and track across the Yucatan. No doubt, though, it bears watching.
There's a second disturbance that has more potential, still out to the east.
We're in for an interesting 3-4 months here.
I'll be on a cruise to Mexico in 9 days. Hope things have cleared up by then.
David keep an eye here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
And here: http://icons-sf.wunderground.com/dat...1001_model.gif
It's the second one you need to watch.
Another one knocking on the door: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...097_model.html
It'll have to wait until our vacation is over!
Hope it goes well for gulf folks.
The best hurricane tracking site I've seen is this one: http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/
Does this site give conservative estimates of strength and landfall?
Post Thanks / Like - 0 Thanks, 1 LaughingPeggy Gray - thanks for this funny post
I'm sure they'll find a way to blame the Democrats for the storm.
Scott, I thought it was you who recommended http://www.stormpulse.com
"Fully embracing the Gospel, fully engaging the world"
I have it bookmarked too...really, when something that might impact us is in play I check out a few different sites. The foxhurricane site got my attention because of its variety of views on one page. However, the stormpulse map is sure a good one.
With hurricanes, you can't help but hope it will go elsewhere, but really, you don't want to wish something like that on anyone. The best result is that it'll just spin itself out over water or will go in in some sparsely populated area.
The weather underground blog has this graphic helping us understand just where we are in the current hurricane season...
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=1580
Is that the Swiss mountain climber from The Price is Right game?
Does Sarah Palin know that you're supporting Weather Underground??
There's a pretty impressive lineup out there now.
Are you folks in the Carolinas ready to batten down the hatches?
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I hope they've done that already!
The folks on the Outer Banks are hunkering down for an overnight blow. I live about 150 miles inland (200 miles from the Outer Banks) and they keep telling us that we won't even get any rain from Earl. Too bad. We need the rain.
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We don't often look to the west to watch for hurricane related weather that that's what's coming for us the next couple of days.
This time of the year, it's the fast forming, Gulf originating storms that pop up and threaten the Texas Gulf coast and that's what's happened with Hermine, which, we're told might just make it to hurricane status before it travels up the Rio Grande River overnight tonight.
It's, of course, a concern for the people of that area, however, this storm is mostly expected to generate lots of rainfall and as it travels northwest it will drench some areas that are in a severe drought. Hopefully, this storm will do more good than harm.
Meanwhile, Gaston won't quite give it up. It's not even on the map anymore, but if it can survive some dry air for a couple more days we could hear a lot about it later this week and into next weekend.
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An interesting thing about these tropical storms, especially hurricanes is their massive size. We hear people talking about "where it's going to hit" as though it's a tornado or some other small weather event. Right now, the center of Hermine is probably 200 miles west of us yet, bands of heavy rain keep passing through and at times it's so dark outside that the street lights come on. We're under a tornado and flood watch.
Now, I know what ground zero is like because of Ike a couple of years ago, and I'll happily trade even a "near miss" for a direct hit, still, these tropical storms are monsters that impact conditions in a major way hundreds of miles out.
Today is a powerful reminder of that here on the Texas Gulf Coast.
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My only real experience with tropical storms/hurricanes was years ago in Austin. In the early 60's, Carla hit somewhere on the Texas coast. We were probably 150-200 miles inland. I don't think I've ever seen harder, more sustained rain. If you were on higher ground (and south Austin has plenty) it was ok. Otherwise, don't cross any low-water bridges. I rather imagine the Gulf plain on which Alvin is located is considerably more vulnerable..
Here's a rarity. For the first time in 12 years we have three Atlantic hurricanes going at the same time and none of them are expected to make landfall anywhere in the USA.
Happily, the forecasters got it wrong. They expected a very active hurricane season with major landfalls. Most of the storms either stayed far south or turned north over the Atlantic and became, mostly "fish storms."
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N06276345.htm
This is a happy day for me. I have a bookmark folder of current news sources. I can click on "open all" and check out news and weather in the tabs that open up. Today I was able to remove a couple of hurricane related links back to their own folder. Our dry air and cooler temps assure that no late season storm is going to make it to the Texas gulf coast.
Ahh. At least till next year.
Interestingly, some of the worst hurricanes ever, struck in October and mainly on the upper East Coast. I don't know the stats, but I would guess the temps stayed warmer longer those years.
We're back to this unwelcome time of the year again.
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We're counting on your tropical storms to end our drought, Scott.
"Transformation comes more from pursuing profound questionsblog: www.marshalyn.blogspot.com
than seeking practical answers."
-- Peter Block in The Answer to How Is Yes
I still say that's the little guy from that Price is Right game.
Looks like the GOP is getting a break - it's our turn to start paying attention.
OK, you guys. Let's get this mess all done and outta the way. We're coming to New Orleans in October and want all this business over with.
Isaac's track appears to have settled on New Orleans on Tuesday evening. It's almost exactly on the anniversary of Katrina and even though this one doesn't look as if it will pack the punch of that infamous storm there's still plenty of reason for concern.
Beyond that, the drought-stricken mid- and eastern- midwest is lining up for some significant rain.
Hurricanes produce a strange mix of feelings...it misses us but hits someone else. It brings destruction one place and welcome rain somewhere else.
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Check out this Google maps treatment of Isaac: http://google.org/crisismap/2012-tropical-system-isaac
Hurricane Isaac wind direction map
Thus far Isaac is finding southwest Indiana's droughty resistance pretty hard to overcome.
Midnight: The slight bulge into SW Indiana is the county west of us (which was quite dry when we left it around 9 p.m.) and stops at the river that forms the county line. If you look closely, you can see that only "green" rain has managed to cross the Wabash river into Indiana. The "yellow" rain has run up against the state line.
9:00 a.m. Although NW Indiana has been breached, we still haven't seen any rain in Odon. But it looks like it has finally crossed the White River into our county and is about to reach us. There was a good crop of grass on the sandbar in the river when we crossed last night. I suspect the sandbar will no longer be visible next time we cross.
.
Marsha
"Transformation comes more from pursuing profound questionsblog: www.marshalyn.blogspot.com
than seeking practical answers."
-- Peter Block in The Answer to How Is Yes
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OK, this is ridiculous. it's time to figure out where we went wrong and repent in sackcloth and ashes.
12:45 pm: I've put an X on Odon in the bottom map, but you can find us here by looking at where Illinois state line (following the Wabash River) bulges out to the east. We are one county in from the line. Notice that the rain is east of our county. It didn't get there by moving east.
Coincidentally, we were also east at the time, parked on what is normally the river bed and playing in the waterfall that exists only when the river is low. We got rained on enough to get wet.
2:25 pm: Now it's in the county south of us. We have yet to get measurable rainfall from this.
By the way, my husband can walk on water.
Marsha
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What did you say his name is, again, Marsha?
Life beats down and crushes the soul and art reminds you that you have one.
~ Stella Adler ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
It takes a great deal of maturity to accept that trying to eliminate all risk eliminates life.
~ Susan Lapin ~
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